Umno, Bersatu and PAS, especially PAS, are hard “at work” in justifying their actions so as not to be blamed for creating “disunity” not only among the three parties but the Malay-Muslim ummah or congregation itself.

Just to be clear, Malay-Muslim of which I am one, never asked to be included in their political equation.

It has always been the three parties themselves who claimed and continue to claim they act for the “sake of the Malay-Muslim community”.

With that point out of the way, I’ll say this. As the three parties have been “selling” the rhetoric that Muafakat Nasional or MN is for “perpaduan ummah” or Malay-Muslim unity, solidarity or whatever they want to call it (which I have to admit quite a substantial number of the community seemed to have bought it), they do not want to be blamed or seen as at fault for anything “destructive” befalling the coalition.

So, we are now hearing justifications on why the parties, individually, do this and not that and offering all sorts of “excuses”, if you like.

I can’t speak on behalf of the Malay-Muslim community. What more the rakyat. But as far as I am concerned, who did what and who is to be blamed for what, is not my main concern.

What I am looking at is the reality of the situation. And what is the situation and what is the reality with regards to MN?

According to Umno’s Tan Sri Shahrir Samad, “PAS no longer strengthens Muafakat that now belongs to Umno and BN.”

In reality, he is saying PAS is abandoning MN leaving only Umno in it.

Shahrir’s remarks came hours after PAS and Bersatu issued a joint statement pledging to strengthen cooperation between them within the Perikatan Nasional framework.

The reality is: PAS has ditched Umno, meaning MN is no more. And PAS has chosen Bersatu, meaning MN 2.0 (sort of) is born. That’s how I see the reality to be.

Another reality as foreseen by Sharhir is that Umno/BN will be facing three- cornered fights in GE15, discounting the involvement of smaller parties and independent candidates (which could see multi-cornered contests) assuming MCA and MIC remain in BN.

Without the two, (weak they might be) and the other five small and little known components of BN, Umno will have face the coming election on its own.

And at the recent Umno General Assembly, the party announced its willingness to go solo but willing to foster new partnership when the election is done.

But first, why did PAS choose Bersatu over Umno?

Well, PAS has been “eating both sides” and Umno has wanted the party to make a final decision. Choose them (Umno) or Bersatu.

So, PAS has made that decision despite saying they want to be the bridge between Umno and Bersatu.

Journalist and media activist Fathi Aris Omar posted on Facebook: “PAS’s attitude towards Umno now is like their attitude towards DAP before. Its not us who wanted to get out but DAP didn’t want us. It’s not PAS but Umno who do not want unity.”

Fathi was referring to the time when PAS left Pakatan Rakyat blaming DAP and now breaking up MN blaming Umno.

I must say that I agree with this gentleman.

In the context of MN, the reality is: PAS is already very comfortable with the rewards for being close to Bersatu. They are in the federal government and that is indeed a huge gain. They have ministers from their ranks and their president is a special envoy with ministerial status. And there are other appointments.

Umno is not government although some of its leaders are in the PN administration, in GLCs and what not.

It’s plain to see PAS obviously feels that being Bersatu’s friend is more beneficial compared to being buddies with Umno. And it’s clear as daylight PAS does not want to give up on the gains obtained thus far (by siding Umno) while eyeing bigger gains.

Bigger gains like heading PN itself should GE15 results turn to the coalition’s favor. And it’s no secret PAS members want their president to be prime minister. To them, Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang is PM material.

Now that the party has openly stated its preference for Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s Bersatu, they are in a good position to contest a bigger number of seats, something not quite possible if Umno is in the picture.

With Umno, negotiation for seat allocation would be tough. Very tough actually.

In previous elections, both parties had contested against each other the same seats which now must be allocated to one of them to contest. And Umno can be a tough nut to crack when it comes to seat negotiation.

Now PAS will not have to negotiate with Umno. Bersatu, being a smaller and weaker party (compared to PAS) despite having the PM as president, would be much easier to handle for seat allocation. At least that’s the PAS thinking.

Bersatu would be hard pressed to defend their seats especially those won in GE14 under the Umno/BN banner. These seats now belong to Bersatu only because the Umno candidates who owned the seats then had defected.

Umno wants the seats back, and Bersatu in defending the seats would need the support of PAS.

Despite Muhyiddin boldly saying if Umno contests all seats, his Bersatu will do the same.

I see PAS contesting more seats than Bersatu in GE15, thus fanning their desire of heading PN and moving in on the PM job.

Like I said, PAS has always wanted to rule and have a PM from within their midst. It’s their right to dream. Will the dream become a reality? Or turn into a nightmare?

(Mohsin Abdullah is a veteran journalist and now a freelancer who writes about this, that and everything else.)