By Mohsin Abdullah
Some political observers and analysts say prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, with his back against the wall, has outmaneuvered Umno by putting the state of emergency in place and "legitimizing" it in the name of the war against COVID-19.
News portal FMT quoted analysts as saying they believe if Muhyiddin's endgame strategy is right, he will be able to checkmate his rivals in Umno by the time the emergency ends in August. If indeed it ends in August if I may add.
How? That is open to interpretations. The PM has from now until August to "work his magic".
Sociopolitical analyst Awang Azman Pawi told FMT, "With no parliamentary sessions until August, Umno has no room to move. This took place just as some Umno MPs were planning to withdraw their support for Muhyiddin."
I agree with the analyst when he said Umno was slow to act despite a strong push from the grassroots to cut ties with Bersatu.
And it was clear, said Awang Azman, that the grassroots were pushing for action.
Indeed, but to be "fair" to the Umno leadership, they had wanted the voice of the grassroots to be heard and discussed at the party AGM come January 31. But now that assembly is very much in question.
Umno had planned for the assembly to be held in great part, virtually. Now it is left to be seen if that plan is implemented during the ongoing emergency.
Personally, I say it can if Umno wants it, as I see that virtual meeting is not against the emergency ordinance.
Anyway, the party is said to be looking into the best way to go.
Still it cannot be denied that Umno was slow as highlighted by analyst Awang Azman.
I've written in a previous article saying Umno has often pulled out the gun, taken aim but never pulled the trigger for the final fatal shot.
And Awang Azman reminded us all that Umno even went to the extent of helping Muhyiddin by supporting the 2021 Budget in Parliament, even tricking the opposition to believe Umno was on their side.
Never mind the so-called concessions Umno got in the Budget. The thing is, the delay in delivering the killer blow on Bersatu has given Muhyiddin the upper hand to strengthen Perikatan Nasional, including by wooing MPs from other parties, as Awang Azman rightly puts it.
"He may also try to talk to Amanah, Warisan or PKR MPs," said Awang Azman.
He went on to tell FMT, "He has the time, and by strengthening PN, Muhyiddin will be able to avoid elections till 2023."
And I would say the "time" for Muhyiddin was presented by Umno .That is surely haunting the party now. Perhaps, Umno is regretting every minute of delaying their move!
As it stands, Umno MP from Kelantan Datuk Ahmad Jazlan Yaakub was brave in making good his words.
He had earlier called for the PN government to dissolve the Parliament by end of January, failing which he would quit as Malaysian Palm Oil Board chairman.
With no indication of the dissolution of Parliament, Ahmad Jazlan quit as promised.
He then went on to announce withdrawing his support for the PN government led by Muhyiddin, putting the PM in a very unstable situation. He walked the talk. Ahmad Jazlan did what his party leaders and colleagues threatened to do but did not do.
Only Umno's Padang Rengas MP Datuk Seri Nazri followed suit in pulling out support for Muhyiddin and his administration – cutting the PM's slim majority in Parliament even slimmer. Some say the the PM's majority is already lost.
Nazri's move, many say, would see other Umno MPs act the same to ensure Muhyiddin's very bad dream become a horrifying nightmare. Then came the Emergency.
Will they continue their intention to withdraw support for Muhyiddin? That is assuming they really harbor such intention in the first place.
Can they do it? Or has Umno truly checkmated?
I don't think so, if you ask me.
Umno can still maneuver, emergency or no emergency. Their MPS can announce whatever things they want to announce. It's not against the law.
Well-known author Kim Quek comments in MalaysiaKini, "There is nothing in law to stop an MP from publicly declaring his withdrawal of support from the PM and his government, irrespective of whether there is a proclamation of emergency.
"And if there are enough such MP declarations, like what Nazri has done, to put the government in a glaring minority position in Parliament, then the PM is compelled by the Federal Constitution to submit his resignation to the Agong or alternatively request for the dissolution of Parliament in accordance with Article 150 (4) of the Constitution, even when there is a proclamation of emergency.
"So, prime minister Muhyiddin is not above the waters yet. His fate still hangs on the intention of those MPs who are complementing to do what Nazri did."
However, consultant editor at The Vibes P Gunasegaram said in a recent piece that with Parliament and state assemblies suspended during the time of the emergency, it would mean even if Muhyiddin loses the majority in Parliament he can't be removed, thus effectively suspending the democratic processes in the country.
Nevertheless, Gunasegaram also said, "The time Muhyiddin has bought via the emergency to stay in power will give leeway to make deals with MPs, a lot of whom are open to all sorts of deals, so as to enable him to stay on as prime minister even after the emergency."
Whatever the situation might be, I believe Umno has not been "mauled", (at least not yet) by that one swift move of Muhyiddin, as some people see it.
But then Umno is at "war" between pro- and anti-Muhyiddin forces in the party.
There are now calls within the party for president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to step down. But naturally, there are calls for him to stay on also.
Umno is split. I can't help but wonder if hidden hands are at play.
(Mohsin Abdullah is a veteran journalist and now a freelancer who writes about this, that and everything else.)
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