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4:17pm 20/11/2024
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When only Trump can defeat Trump ?
By:By:Dr. Phar Kim Beng and Girrishaa Rajan

Trump in this sense has a complete chokehold of the system. Whether he is able to ride above the proverbial parapet of American bipartisanship, much of it would depend on Trump’s own aptitude and attitude in full.

The size of President Elect Donald Trump (hereon Trump)’s electoral victory was not only sweeping but shocking. Not only did Trump take over the White House, again, as the 47th President of the United States (US) but dominated the US Senate and House of Lower Representatives with the Republican Party.

While the shock is global this is only the case when one factors into the consideration, which many ignored, that the US has for the most parts been the major power that has turned away from isolationism since 1945, when it cemented itself as the superpower in the world.

However, what is interesting about the electoral victory of Trump is the very fact that he himself, once again, was stunned, not unlike November 2016, that he has defied all electoral logic in the US. Invariably to win the popular votes too; a feat which he has failed to do in 2016.

But there is more than meets the eye. As a consummate cable network news junkie, often going well into the wee hours of the morning, Trump was stunned by what was reported back.

This time around Trump has increased the share of his black African American votes by 20 percent.  Even the share of his Asian American votes went up by a single digit although Trump was constantly spewing seemingly anti immigration rhetoric all through 2017 to 2024.

To be sure, there are 1.8 million Americans, according to the ex Chief of Communication of Trump i.e. Anthony Scaramuchi,, that remains in jail. This number alone is considered large.

Yet to evict 11 million illegal migrants from the US, huge camps and half way stations have to be built. Such a plan would cost the US government anything upward of USD 800 Billion to USD 1 Trillion.

To supporters of Trump, this is not something that the US should be intimidated with. Getting the US, a land of immigrants, is more important than allowing illegal and undocumented immigrants to pour into the US, albeit mainly to find their ways into the large cities in the US.

While Trump is certain that immigration would be one of the most important issues for him to hit on—-the other issue being the inflation of the US—–the fact is no American presidents have been re-elected into office by focusing so narrowly on this issue alone.

Normally, Hispanic voters in the US are against a President who is anti immigration. Yet even here there was another twist. Invariably in an election characterised by seismic shifts. Not least, there was a surge of 13-point in the Latino vote toward Trump, reported Newsweek on November 14 2024.

The President-elect’s success also appeared to usher in a new age of political predictions and has again cast doubt on the credibility of America’s polling class. In other words, those who had been making all the predictions that the election would be a close race.

It wasn’t Trump and the Republican Party were triumphant in almost every level of electoral contest. In more ways than one, this election had Trump the presidential contender beating Trump the perpetual swagger.

When a President of the United States (POTUS) has deemed this victory as the work of his own “genius,” a phrase which Trump had said it out loud on the night of the electoral victory, all the flaws of Trump would be difficult to challenge at the outset.

The results are as predictable as they are frenzied. Over the last one week, Trump had agreed to appoint three anti China hawks to be at the helm. Marco Rubio, the descendant of a Cuban immigrant, would be the Secretary of State.

The Secretary of Defence would be Pete Hegseth; while the National Security Advisor would be Michael Waltz.

Even the US Ambassador to the United Nations (UN) would be Elise Stefanik, barely 40, yet one who has been asked to resign from her position as the Congresswoman in New York to get ready for the position of the UN. Known for her pro-Israel beliefs, Stefanik gained national attention in December 2023 for her intense questioning of university presidents during a widely televised US congressional hearing on antisemitism.

Stefanik’s questioning contributed to the resignation of Liz Magill, the president of the University of Pennsylvania.

Stefanik was awarded the “Dr. Miriam and Sheldon Adelson Defender of Israel Award” by the Zionist Organisation of America.

Elise, not unlike the three appointments before her, is considered someone who is totally pro Israel.

Meanwhile, the former governor of Arizona i.e. Mike Hucklebee would be the US Ambassador to Israel.

All of the above seem to have a good relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel.

While Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democrat, would be the National Director of Intelligence, a body that oversees the products of eighteen intelligence agencies, she is an American of Salmoan background.

Smart and savvy with American affairs but not necessarily one who has a gentle view of political Islam, as she sees the latter as the precursor to “Islamic Terrorism.”

The Chief of Staff Susan Wiles is openly credited by Trump as the person to bring about the massive electoral victory in the White House and Congress. Susan, while humble and unassuming, would be the first American woman to hold the position of Chief of Staff.

While the position of Deputy Chief of Staff would go to Stephen Miller. Stephen Miller was one of the few to have completed his first four years with Trump between early 2017 and 2021 respectively.

Brooke Rollins, previously at the American First Policy Institute would be brought into the fold of the White House too.

On day one of Trump’s administration on January 20th 2025, most of the Executive Orders (EO), one source estimated at three hundred all drafted and ready, would be signed into force by Trump.

In the main, they derived from the recommendations of the American First Policy Institute based in Washington DC.

The institute was established with the funding of three American billionaires based in Texas.

Trump in this sense has a complete chokehold of the system.

Whether he is able to ride above the proverbial parapet of American bipartisanship, much of it would depend on Trump’s own aptitude and attitude in full. In his first term, for example, Trump’s agenda was often put in check by seven Republican senators. 

Come what may,  Trump has been given blank slate to do whatever he wants for now. In a Trump versus Trump administration one will see all the quirks and peccadilloes of Trump more clearly.

This does not mean that Trump 2.0 can do what it can to pave the way for, say, Ivanka Trump to be the first woman President of the US by 2029. Let alone clearing away the path for Vice President JD Vance, barely 41, to step into the shoes of Trump. But the prospect of a dominant Trump is real both within the US and without.

Ironically, it is perhaps a good thing that Trump does not like any kind of multilateralism at all. In fact, Trump once affirmed the most “beautiful word in the English dictionary is tariff. “

Punitive or otherwise, Trump plans to slap all forms of tariffs on American and non American companies to goad them to return to the mainland of the US.

As he explained to Josh Rogan a week before the fateful election of November 5th 2024: “When the administration slams all forms of tariffs on the semi conductor imports, the same companies will find their way back to the US to try to establish their factories in the US.”

Theoretically, Trump’s self serving logic may have some degree of Truism.

But according to Gordon Chang, former Chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Multinational Corporation (TSMC): “For a foundry to succeed, the labour turnover must not exceed more than five percent a month.”

A feat which the US has not been able to hold down, as compared to Taiwan or China, who have become accustomed to the routined labour of making sure all the chips are produced without any margin of error.

Thus whether Trump can succeed or fail on the re-industrialisation of the American Incorporated, the taste of the pudding remains in the eating.

(This article is contributed by the Centre of Regional Strategic Studies (CROSS) and authored by Dr. Phar Kim Beng, Expert Committee Member of CROSS and CEO of Strategic Pan Indo Pacific Arena; Girrishaa Rajan, Strategic Analyst of Strategic Pan Indo Pacific Arena.)

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Donald Trump
Centre of Regional Strategic Studies (CROSS)

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