By Tay Tian Yan, Sin Chew Daily

Few days before the polling day for Sabah election, Anwar Ibrahim launched the "Meridian Move". Muhyiddin Yassin was challenged as if his fort had caught fire.

Based on the norm, Muhyiddin should remain in Kuala Lumpur to take care of the fire. Instead, he rushed to Sabah for a final round of campaign.

At that very moment, the Sabah election was crucial for Muhyiddin. His fate depended on Sabah.

Muhyiddin believes Sabah is his real battlefield. As long as he wins Sabah, he will be able to offset those trying to oust him.

The victory is not confined to Sabah only.

This is the strategy of a victory in Sabah means he wins the entire battle.

Whether a political observer or a member of the public who is concerned with politics, they see Muhyiddin's chance in Sabah as slim.

Political rallies organized by Parti Warisan Sabah were packed despite COVID-19 fears. Shafie Apdal was the shining star as the election icon. Many predicted him as the "David who is going to defeat Goliath."

Several opinion polls also indicated that Warisan is leading. Of the total 73 seats, Warisan was predicted to win at least 40 seats. Some even forecast Warisan to win more than 50 seats.

Politics is full of uncertainties. Muhyiddin was in a disadvantaged position. It was a matter of 'how many seats he will lose'.

But the poll result was otherwise – not a miracle yet but a stunning result.

The Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (Perikatan Nasional, Barisan Nasional and PBS) led by Muhyiddin delivered better results than the forecast. Even the Parti Pribumi Bersatu in Sabah achieved unprecedented result. It might not have won many seats as Umno, but its winning rate exceeded Umno.

People may ask, how did Muhyiddin win? And how did Shafie lose?

Muhyiddin's popularity was the key for him to win. The poll conducted by Merdeka Center showed that Muhyiddin's support in Sarawak and Sabah exceeded 90% (69% at national level).

Muhyiddin's performance in combating the pandemic and the strategy to revive the economy have won recognition of East Malaysians. Such popularity has been converted into votes in the state election.

The Muhyiddin effect was used by the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah in the Sabah election. This has resolved the embarrassing scenario of having no candidate for Sabah chief minister. Muhyiddin's image and his capability to attract votes is far more superior than Bung Moktar Radin in BN or Hajiji Mohd Noor, the Sabah PPBM chief.

Warisan's strategy focuses on Shafie and sovereignty of Sabah to seek consensus from Sabah voters on Sabah ownership.

But there is a limit in terms of impact that Shafie and Warisan can generate. His main support lies with Sulus and Bajaus in the east coast of Sabah and the Chinese in urban areas.

Shafie' s image of siding Sulus and Bajaus is like a label sealed on his head. The video clip of him promising to appoint Sulus and Bajaus to high positions was circulated during the campaign, and this had drawn dissatisfaction among the Malays and Kadazans.

The people in remote areas and the west coast of Sabah were unhappy with Shafie who said during a campaign that a talk should be held with the Philippines over the state's sovereignty as well as the claim by Warisan leader Mohamaddin Ketapi that the Sulu invasion was 'a show'.

UPKO, which represents Kadazan, Dusun and Mulu groups, suffered total defeat. This showed the groups' distrust of Shafie and drew a line to stay away from UPKO. They voted for PBS and Star, a new party set up by the 'frog king' Jeffery Kitingan.

The Chinese in Sabah are still strong supporters of DAP and Warisan. Of the seven seats contested by DAP, the party only lost one in a Kadazan area, showing that since the Sandakan parliamentary by-election, the political inclination of Chinese remains much the same.

However, Chinese voters are the minority in Sabah and they are not king makers.

In a nutshell, Muhyiddin is the biggest winner in the Sabah election while Shafie the biggest loser.

Muhyiddin did not only win Sabah but also resolved the mounting pressures from Umno and Anwar pressing him to step down.

As expected, some Umno MPs may have valid reasons to request Muhyiddin to quit and call for snap polls if he loses Sabah. By then, Muhyiddin, who lacks negotiation power to allocate seats for Umno, will have to comply.

Nevertheless, the plan is in limbo now. Muhyiddin's victory proved that he was capable of garnering votes and Bersatu is capable. This enhances his power to fight for more seats for Bersatu and call for the general elections based on his schedule.

The Umno factions which have struck a deal with Anwar to overturn Muhyiddin are now in a catch too. There may be some changes.

Pakatan Harapan has placed its hopes on Shafie to revert the weak position of the coalition through Warisan's victory and even upgrade Shafie to be the future Prime Minister. Pakatan Harapan's hope is dashed and Shafie suffers a huge setback. It will be hard for him to make a comeback, let alone saving Pakatan Harapan.

Sabah state election has concluded, Muhyiddin's myth works. Everyone's concern now is whether the myth will be able to extend to the general elections.