How many will join tomorrow’s (Saturday) “Turun Anwar” rally? 10,000? 50,000? 100,000? Or the 500,000 claimed by Datuk Seri Dr. Shahidan Kassim or even the 1 million threatened by Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin?

A conservative analysis shows that if fewer than 10,000 people turn up, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim can sleep peacefully.

If the crowd exceeds 50,000, Anwar may lose sleep.

If it reaches 100,000, Anwar’s days may be numbered.

As for 500,000, or 1 million, that’s impossible. If such numbers do really show up, Madani (Anwar’s administration) would be in grave danger.

Of course, some argue that no matter how big the rally is, it won’t topple Anwar.

Whether he steps down or not, it will be decided in Parliament or through a general election—not by people gathering in the streets.

These arguments are partially correct. In the 222-seat Parliament, Anwar currently commands support from about 140 seats. With Umno and GPS having no reason to defect, Anwar is still safe—for now.

As for the next general election, it’s still a long way to go. As long as Anwar doesn’t dissolve Parliament, he remains prime minister at least until 2027.

Still, while Anwar appears relaxed on the surface, in reality, he’s on high alert.

The government has warned civil servants not to join the rally, and police have deployed 2,000 officers—this is no joke.

In fact, Anwar has handed out “sweets” just in time: a RM100 cash handout, an extra public holiday, and a 6-sen drop in petrol prices—all under the pretext of “giving back to the people.”

But sharp observers can tell this is a calculated move to artificially cool public anger and reduce rally turnout.

Indeed, from Bersih 1.0 onward, no rally brought down a government immediately. But each one created a snowball effect, drawing more people into the opposition camp, strengthening their momentum, and weakening the ruling party.

However, judging from public reaction, these “candies” lack real calming effect. People accept them, but still curse under their breath. The anti-Anwar sentiment remains high.

Yes, no matter what, Anwar won’t fall overnight because of a single protest.

The organizers of the “Turun Anwar” rally know this too—one rally alone can’t topple Anwar.

But remember Bersih 1.0? And the rallies that followed—2.0, 3.0, and 4.0?

The first Bersih rally was in 2007, targeting then-Prime Minister Tun Abdullah Badawi.

Honestly speaking, Abdullah wasn’t a complete failure, but he failed to deliver many of his promises.

Public disappointment grew, especially after he floated petrol prices, triggering a backlash.

Initially, Bersih’s call for clean and fair elections attracted mainly those with a strong sense of civic responsibility. But as public dissatisfaction with Abdullah’s government grew, Bersih became a rallying cry for a mass anti-government movement.

PAS, DAP, and PKR seized the moment. They took over the platform and transformed it into a campaign to bring down the government. This unprecedentedly united Malays, Chinese, and Indians against a common enemy.

The rally drew massive crowds—tens of thousands—rocking the entire nation.

Even Abdullah’s remaining support began to crumble. Within Umno, confidence in him fell apart.

In the general election the following year, Abdullah barely scraped through.

Barisan Nasional (BN) lost its two-thirds majority for the first time and lost several state governments, ultimately forcing Umno to push Abdullah out.

Under Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, the same pattern repeated.

PAS, PKR, and DAP organized Bersih 2.0 and 3.0. The 2012 Bersih 3.0 rally drew over 100,000 people.

In the election the following year, the confident Najib suffered a crushing blow. By the time Bersih 5.0 came around, even Tun Dr Mahathir joined the cause—leading to the collapse of Barisan Nasional.

Indeed, from Bersih 1.0 onward, no rally brought down a government immediately. But each one created a snowball effect, drawing more people into the opposition camp, strengthening their momentum, and weakening the ruling party.

Now, in 2025, if the “Turun Anwar” rally stirs up waves, it could spark a growing anti-Madani movement.

Members of the Unity Government may begin to waver. If not, they must prepare for the challenge of the 16th General Election.

Will history repeat itself? Can Anwar afford not to worry?