KUALA LUMPUR: The Centre for Malaysian Chinese Studies (Huayan) has launched a flagship research project to analyze the impact of demographic shifts in politics, economy, culture and family caused by low birthrate among Chinese Malaysians.

Dr. Chang Yun Fah, chairman of academic research committee in Huayan, who is in charge of the project, revealed that in year 2000, the number of Chinese newborns in Malaysia was 115,000. And by 2023, the number had fallen to just 45,000.

“The birth rate has dropped by 60 percent in 23 years, meaning Chinese Malaysians record an average decrease of 2,559 births annually.”

At the same time, the Malay population saw an average annual increase of 1,830 births, making them the only ethnic group with a rising birth count.

Births among other Orang Asli groups and the Indians also declined by an average of 66 and 694 per year respectively.

“In terms of birth rate per 1,000 people, Chinese Malaysians rank the lowest among all ethnic groups,” he said.

In terms of total fertility rate (TFR)—the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime— Chinese Malaysians again had the lowest rate.

In 2023, the TFR for Chinese women was only 0.8.

By comparison, the TFR for Indians was 1.2, and for Malays and other groups, 2.1.

Chang pointed out that a TFR of 2.1 is the replacement level needed to maintain a stable population size.

He emphasized that one cannot focus only on the Chinese population when discussing population impacts; it’s necessary to understand the interrelated changes among all ethnic groups.

“That’s why the first phase of our research project focuses on forecasting and analyzing demographic trends and structures, identifying influencing factors, and developing policy responses.

“We aim to study future population trends and the interrelationships between various factors.”

While the Chinese are facing a fertility crisis, the Malays are also experiencing a decline in total fertility rate.

“Although the Malay birth count is still increasing, their TFR is on a downward trend—and it’s declining faster than that of the Chinese,” Chang said.

From 2014 to 2023, the TFR for Malays declined at a faster rate than that for Chinese. However, because the Malay population is much larger, the effects are not that visible.

However, since their TFR has already reached the replacement level of 2.1, other indicators such as birth rate will soon start to be affected.

“This is why we need to understand the interconnections between ethnic demographic changes. Only then we can analyze the causes of declining birth rates and determine the appropriate measures to address them.”

The “Chinese Population Study” flagship project will be conducted in three phases, each lasting a year and comprising three sub-topics of research.

In the first phase, the study will focus on forecasting and analyzing population trends and structures, various factors and developing policy responses.

Phase one also covers examining the impact of aging population on Chinese entrepreneurship and family businesses, as well as the household economy led by elderlies.

For the second phase, focus will be on medical services demand by elderlies in Chinese communities, the impact of demographic change of the Chinese in political representation and the transition of traditional culture and family values in Chinese families.

In the third phase, study will examine how demographic changes and migration of the Chinese affect Chinese-language education, aging and redevelopment of Chinese-majority cities, as well as the employment and talent development among Chinese youth.

Huayan director and researcher Chiam Yan Tuan stated that all ethnic groups in Malaysia—not just the Chinese—are facing declining population trends, according to newly released official population statistics.

The overall demographic structure of all groups will influence the socioeconomic and political developments in the years ahead, he said.

The project was supported by Bayan Baru member of parliament Sim Tze Tzin who allocated RM30,000 for it.

The project needs RM170,000 in research fees and publication of the findings.

Dr Chang said phase one of the project started in March due to the urgency of the issue. The findings are expected to be released early next year.