From North Korea’s point of view, it is clear that the change of government, which is the fate of democratic countries, is a major obstacle to negotiations. In particular, the United States and South Korea, which have presidential systems, significantly change their North Korea policies with each change of government.

On November 15, the President of the State Affairs Commission Kim Jong Un delivered a speech to battalion commanders of the Korean People’s Army and for the first time used the phrase “the US, Japan and South Korea” to criticise the three countries.

Viewing the United States, Japan and South Korea as an “Asian version of NATO” and a “military bloc” is also a logic for North Korea to justify its military cooperation with Russia.

Kim Jong Un’s increasingly confrontational attitude toward the US, Japan and South Korea, supported by his close relationship with the Putin government, is based on the fact that North Korean diplomacy has been a series of failures since the time of his grandfather and father.

The failure of North Korea’s diplomacy with the United States can be divided into two stages. First, there was the series of US-North Korea negotiations in the 1990s, which began with the North Korean nuclear crisis in 1994. In 1994, former President Carter, with the approval of the Clinton administration, visited North Korea as a “private citizen” and met with President Kim Il Sung.

This resulted in the “Agreed Framework between the United States of America and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,” and after some twists and turns, the “US-DPRK Joint Communique” was announced in 2000.

Towards the end of the second Clinton administration, Secretary of State Albright visited North Korea and met with Chairman of the National Defence Commission Kim Jong Il, but the following year the George W. Bush administration came into power, and with the changing international environment due to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, US-North Korea relations deteriorated once again.

The North Korean leadership’s second setback was even more devastating. In 2018, Kim Jong Un realised the first-ever summit between North Korea and the United States, but the second meeting was a painful experience, ending in a breakdown with no agreement reached.

Despite the suspension of nuclear and missile tests and the release of detained Americans, North Korea was unable to gain any practical gains that it could be proud of in its direct negotiations with then-President Trump.

It has also suffered setbacks in its diplomacy with Japan. In 1990, a joint delegation from Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the largest opposition party, the Japan Socialist Party (JSP), visited North Korea, met with Kim Il Sung, and announced the “Three-Party Joint Declaration” with the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea.

As a result of the establishment of diplomatic relations with South Korea by the socialist countries of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, North Korea, feeling increasingly isolated, sought access to Japan.

Negotiations to normalise diplomatic relations between Japan and North Korea began the following year, but broke down over North Korea’s abduction of Japanese citizens and the nuclear issue.

In 2002, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and Kim Jong Il held the first-ever Japan-North Korea summit and signed the Japan-DPRK Pyongyang Declaration. Although this resumed normalisation talks, the Japanese side became increasingly suspicious of North Korea’s response to the abduction issue, and negotiations were soon suspended.

North Korea did not gain any practical benefits from this, even though its supreme leader himself acknowledged the national crime of the abductions and apologised.

In January 2024, Kim Jong Un sent a message of condolence to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for the devastating earthquake in Japan.

This was the first time that the supreme leader of North Korea had sent a telegram to the prime minister of Japan, and it was clearly an overture. However, Japan never responded.

North Korea has also suffered repeated setbacks in its policy of reunification with South Korea. In 2000, the first inter-Korean summit was held between President Kim Dae-jung and Kim Jong Il.

His successor, President Roh Moo-hyun, also inherited Kim Dae-jung’s “Sunshine Policy,” but with the return of a conservative government in South Korea, economic cooperation projects between the two Koreas came to a halt.

However, in 2018, President Moon Jae-in was able to hold three summits with Kim Jong Un, which resulted in more detailed agreements, the “Panmunjom Declaration” in April and the “Pyongyang Joint Declaration” in September.

North Korea had high expectations of South Korea’s progressive government, but Moon Jae-in could not have independently provided economic aid to North Korea without the understanding of the United States.

In 2022, the Yoon Suk Yeol administration came to power, completely rejecting Moon Jae-in’s conciliatory policy toward North Korea, and relations between North and South Korea became increasingly strained.

From North Korea’s point of view, it is clear that the change of government, which is the fate of democratic countries, is a major obstacle to negotiations.

In particular, the United States and South Korea, which have presidential systems, significantly change their North Korea policies with each change of government.

On the other hand, North Korea is a country of strong continuity, with three generations of rulers for 76 years. North Korean experts on Japan, who played an active role in the rapprochement between Japan and North Korea in the 1990s, are still deeply involved in North Korea’s policy toward Japan.

This means that North Korean foreign policymakers have been closely watching the movements of the United States, Japan, and South Korea for many years.

In order to resolve various issues peacefully, it is important for North Korea to gain the benefits of diplomacy with the United States, Japan and South Korea; that is, to gain the experience of success.

In reality, however, even if North Korea tries to negotiate with “enemies” such as the United States, Japan and South Korea, it will ultimately fail. Worse, it will be humiliated, and this lesson has led to the current hardening.

On November 21, Kim Jong Un said that “we have already gone as far as possible in negotiations with the United States” and as a result he is convinced of an “invasive and hostile policy against the DPRK.”

It must be said that the situation is serious.

(Atsuhito Isozaki is Professor at Keio University, Japan.)