PETALING JAYA: Political analysts believe that the incumbent Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi will very likely be re-elected in the coming party elections.

Local political analyst Associate Prof. Dr. Jeniri Amir put it forthright that Datuk Ismail Sabri Yaakob has no power at his disposal as he is no longer the prime minister, while Khairy Jamaluddin, who has before contested the party presidency but failed, has no government post now, having lost in the recent general election.

Dr. Jeniri felt that Ismail and Khairy would never be able to unseat Ahmad Zahid and his deputy Mohamad Hasan.

“As for Hishammuddin (BN’s treasurer-general), he is widely perceived as someone disloyal to the party.”

He believed these two top party posts would not be open for contest for the sake of the stability of the party and government.

“Even if the president is being challenged, chances for him to be taken down are very slim. None in the party can do that easily!”

Dr. Jeniri told Sin Chew Daily Umno members would respect Ahmad Zahid as the party’s president and the country’s deputy prime minister. Even though there were calls for his resignation after BN’s lackluster performance in the 15th general election, Zahid nevertheless still had the staunch support of 130 divisions.

“This is a powerful sign!”

In general, he said, Umno wanted to see a stable unity government under Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, and a change in Umno leadership could undermine the stability of the unity government.

“I feel that given the warm relationship between Ahmad Zahid and Anwar, this is the model that people are more inclined to embrace. They are generally comfortable with the cooperation between Zahid and Anwar.”

Current affairs commentator Dr. Oh Ei Sun also concurred that no Umno leader could defeat Ahmad Zahid even though the top party post is open for contest.

He told Sin Chew Daily that Ismail Sabri, Khairy Jamaluddin or Hishammuddin Hussein — his mostly likely challengers — all lack strong grassroots support.

“They not only lack strong grassroots, I also don’t see them working together. Very sporadic, each thinking he is the strongest and the best person to lead the party.

“At least they must put up a team if they really want to challenge Zahid. For example, Ismail will run for president and Khairy for deputy president.”

Dr. Oh also said Zahid had better access to government resources to win the battle, either in his capacity as party president or deputy PM.

“Additionally, he is a leader with relatively solid grassroots support. He’s always there shaking hands with people at every divisional meeting, something not every leader can do.

“Even when he was without any government post, he almost always had the unanimous support of divisional leaders, say during each of Umno’s pre-election events or pushing for an early general election.

“What’s more he’s now the DPM!”

Oh believed that Tok Mat would not challenge Ahmad Zahid’s presidency or he would likely be seen as a traitor and end up losing the party election.

However, if the deputy president post is open for contest, Oh did not rule out the possibility Tok Mat would be challenged.

“Challenging Zahid is destined to fail, but at least there is still chance challenging Tok Mat!”

A Zahid-led Umno is a boon to the unity government although there is still a risk with or without Zahid at the helm.

“What if someone, after failing to challenge Zahid, takes a few MPs with him?

“But if Zahid is not in charge, then this unity government is definitely shaky?”