Whenever the election is held, it is universal belief that no single political alliance will get to rule alone post-GE15, meaning quick return to political stability after election so that the new government can start work right away to revive the pandemic-hit economy, is simply inconceivable.

Since Umno’s Top Five and supreme council decided last Friday to dissolve the parliament as soon as possible, we have been tipped with a good deal of real as well as unverified political news, while political parties expedite their talks to put up makeshift alliances just in case parliament is dissolved earlier than anticipated.

The media have over the past several days extended their reception antennae to stalk every move of the prime minister; even the King’s daily routine has come under their radars.

Given the huge amounts of political activities of late, there have been countless versions as to when the parliament will actually be dissolved. Some have claimed the parliament will be dissolved as soon as the Budget is tabled; some say a few days later while others believe in an abrupt dissolution without a Budget.

With the anti-hopping law univocally passed in Dewan Rakyat under popular pressure now going into effect from October 5, the guessing game on the parliament’s dissolution is now tailing towards an end.

Let’s take a look at the three possible scenarios of the parliament’s dissolution and their implications:

Dissolution without a Budget

This scenario seems to have a particularly good following in these last two days.

But weirdly, PM Ismail Sabri still claimed after chairing the current parliamentary session on Sunday evening that he had faith the 2023 Budget would be adopted with the support of lawmakers.

That said, a full set of debates must predate any adoption of the Budget, a process that is not going to take fewer than 20 days. If that is the case, the PM can only announce the dissolution in November, with polling day falling right in the middle of the soggy monsoon season that is poised to soak up some poorly drained low-lying areas. Who would want that to happen?

Incidentally, finance minister Tengku Zafrul posted on Facebook a picture of his team rushing through the Budget in the wee hours of Wednesday morning.

If in the end the Budget is preempted to make way for an early dissolution, then our PM must have been putting up a show to disillusion Malaysians, in which Zafrul is more than happy to play his supporting role dutifully.

Unfortunately, this will also mean all the effort put in by the Treasury and the Budget team these past few months will invariably go down the drain. Sadly, such effort is not worth a penny in the eyes of irresponsible politicians blinded by power.

If Zafrul gets to become finance minister again after the election, perhaps there is still good chance his hard work will get pulled out from the drawer. But what if we have a new government or a different finance minister?

Dissolution after Budget tabling

Whether the parliament is dissolved on the same day the Budget is tabled, or a couple of days later after the Prophet’s Birthday on Monday, one thing we are quite certain is that few would ever give the Budget a heed.

We had a similar experience when Mahathir set the precedent 23 years ago.

Then finance minister Daim Zainuddin tabled his 2000 Budget on October 29, 1999. The debates that followed became increasingly pallid and tedious before the parliament was dissolved on November 10.

BN was re-elected despite challenges from the first ever Reformasi movement, and the same Budget was re-tabled in parliament in its entirety, and eventually passed.

The question is, things have changed now. Ismail is no Mahathir, and BN is not what it used to be any more!

Dissolution after Budget adoption

All signs point to the fact that the probability of this scenario is extremely slim, as this will mean the election will not be called until next year.

As a matter of fact, if the PM chooses to do so, he will have to first make sure the Budget will get passed.

It will take only a couple of defiant mainstream Umno MPs to overturn the whole Budget, which is akin to casting a vote of no confidence against the PM who will now have to step down from office or dissolve the parliament right away.

Even if the Budget gets adopted with the support of opposition reps, the PM will still find himself constantly under the menacing pressure from his own party’s mainstream faction.

Following the supreme council’s move to ax two of Ismail’s people last week, you can bet that their crosshairs are now drifting closer and closer towards the chief.

Whichever way, it is almost certain that there’ll be no more chance for Ismail.

November before the onset of floods is the only option viable if an election must be held within this year. Alternatively, we can wait until late January after CNY or before Ramadan in March and early April. Otherwise, just wait until after Raya when the current parliament expires.

Given the landslide wins in Melaka and Johor state elections, Umno’s mainstream leaders are fully convinced that they will win big if the general election is held very soon, although we can only tell how true that is after the election.

But one thing we must take note is that the general election is not going to be the same as a state election, and the role of East Malaysia is not to be downplayed if one has an eye on Putrajaya!

The opposition’s chances are not looking good in the meantime, and they have in one accord attempted to stop an election soon on the grounds of possible year-end floods, exposing their lack of synergistic tactics to fight the war.

Whenever the election is held, it is universal belief that no single political alliance will get to rule alone post-GE15, meaning quick return to political stability after election so that the new government can start work right away to revive the pandemic-hit economy, is simply inconceivable.

Anyway, if anyone tells you with full confidence the parliament is going to be dissolved on a particular day, you can be quite sure he is not the PM’s confidant, as the real confidant will keep his lips zipped even tough he knows the secret.

But sure enough such people have their circles of friends who in turn have their own individual circles of friends who might inadvertently divulge a hint of what they’ve overheard.

Perhaps until the dissolution is finalized, we can look back and identify who among the bunch of informants are really close to the core of power, for it definitely pays to take heed of what these people say and do in future!