By Lee San

The UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) once projected that the number of tourists worldwide could shatter previous records with almost 5% expansion to more than 1.45 billion in 2020. No wonder countries across the world kept purchasing new planes and tour coaches, and built new hotels, resorts, theme parks, specialty restaurants and souvenir shops in anticipation of the explosive growth. It was said that the tourist industry workforce had breached the 300-million mark globally at one point.

Still remember the 2020 Visit Malaysia Year? It seems like we just kicked it off in a big way not long ago, huh!

Unfortunately, the coronavirus officially came to light on the last day of 2019, followed closely by the Wuhan lockdown on January 23, 2020, marking the start of the virus' unstoppable global spread. The 2020 spring festival tours were the worst hit casualties.

Let's have a recap of how the virus made inroads into our country.

The Pakatan Harapan government fell on February 29, 2020, and Perikatan Nasional took over the following day. On March 18, the Muhyiddin administration started enforcing the movement control order (MCO), the first impenetrable total lockdown since the country's independence more than six decades ago. After 48 days, on May 4, some states shifted to conditional movement control order (CMCO), and following further improvement in the pandemic on June 10, the country finally managed to take a sigh of relief as we went into the phase of recovery movement control order (RMCO).

People began to let down their guard as they rushed to take retaliatory cuti-cuti all across Malaysia. To be very honest, some of the outbound operators were prepared to restart their tour packages hopefully in time for the autumn travel season.

Heaven knows the September state elections in Sabah triggered a new wave of infections, a much more ferocious one in fact. This time, the virus really beat us to our knees. October 14, comma, we once again went into CMCO as virus spread slowed, but then political heat began to pick up in intensity. And very weirdly, the government out of the blue declared a state of emergency for eight months with effect from January 12. The following day, comma, some states were back in the paralyzing MCO phase. And then on March 5, we took another breather as we transited into CMCO, also another comma, until April 28… and a full stop by then?

So far KL has been continuously locked down for at least 214 days with no prospect of the ordeal coming to a decisive end anytime soon. Imagine within the same country, people living in the nation's capital cannot even travel out of the city for over seven months! Unbelievable right? Most importantly, how could the tourist industry take the enormous beating?

UNWTO is definitely very worried. Report shows that the number of tourists in Asia plummeted by a hefty 84% in 2020. And January 2021 even suffered a record 96% dive in tourist arrivals. (Globally it was 74% plunge for the whole of 2020, and 87% this January.) The most disheartening fact is that the tourist industry has lost a total of 130 million jobs worldwide. Looks like a full recovery is nowhere in sight and we are still miles away from a "full stop".

As a matter of fact, people's worries are completely understandable.

WHO has initially pinned its hopes on the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. But, even as more than a billion doses have already been administered in 193 countries and territories worldwide, 87% of the vaccines are actually in the hands of a handful of wealthy nations. As for the rest of the world, they either have no money, or no available stock to buy. The uneven distribution of vaccines will not help stop the virus' spread completely. A fourth wave of infections is in the offing, for certain.

Countries that have extensively inoculated their populations are equally worried and uneasy, but then they still have to restart their tourist industry to generate jobs. Iceland has started its vaccine passport program, the EU has launched the digital green certificates, US has opened up domestic travel for all 50 states, Australia and New Zealand have started their travel bubble program, while Asean is eyeing a region-wide green travel corridor… Looks like every nation is attempting to open up their borders within their respective regions. In principle, such a development is absolutely positive and encouraging.

We can easily see that farsighted leaders around the world have been working very hard to fight the virus in order to bring life back to normal for their citizens. They will first implement appropriate lockdown policies from the scientific point of view, followed by quarantine and widespread screening of their people, and then do their best to get their entire populations immunized soonest. At the same time, they also seize every opportunity to discuss with key business leaders to bring on an effective exit plan.

Singapore Airlines is one such instance. They have both the strategies and confidence, believing they can achieve 26% of pre-pandemic passenger volume by the end of this May. With such positivity, does it mean nations will soon scrap the mandatory quarantine for inoculated travelers entering their countries?

Unfortunately, the coronavirus virus appears to be much smarter than we thought, as if it can see through human arrogance, selfishness, disunity as well as corruption and incompetence of our politicians. "Human beings are fighting among themselves purportedly to save the lives of their loved ones, but on the other hand they are also raising conflicts and killing their fellow humans!" The virus is therefore not afraid of the vaccines humans have developed against it, as it keeps mutating and sows discord among people, taking daily infection numbers to new highs and expanding the fourth wave without much effort.

To date more than 140 million people have been infected and 3.2 million killed globally. An estimated four million new cases are expected to be reported each week in the days to come.

In view of this, how on earth could our government leaders keep making sweet (and empty) promises to the people? We are set to go on with our day-to-day lives hanging suspended in the perpetual "commas". No question about it!

And the wait is still on!

(Lee San is Founder and Group Executive Chairman of Apple Vacations. He has traveled to 132 countries, six continents, and enjoys sharing his travel stories and insights. He has also authored five books.)