Wasn’t it British Prime Minister Harold Wilson in the mid 60s who famously coined the phrase: “a week is a long time in politics”?

Many years later, following the UK-wide referendum in June 2016 in which the “leave EU” vote won, resulting in the Brexit which saw the resignation of David Cameron and the swift transfer of power to Theresa May as Prime Minister – commentators, rather one commented that “if Wilson was alive he would have to admit at the moment 24 hours is a lifetime in politics”.

That phrase, I would say, could very well be applied to our very own political state of affairs where political parties sit in government but not being part of the ruling coalition. And one party sitting in two political coalitions at the same time. And all sorts of strange things.

Then, there are the recent goings-on involving Umno and Bersatu, not forgetting of course, Umno’s partners in BN: MCA and MIC.

As late as 7 March, MCA said it would stick to BN come GE15. Needless to say, that stand was announced slightly more than a month ago.

If one subscribes to the notion “24 hours is a lifetime in politics”, then one month indeed is a very long time.

On paper, MCA’s stand still stands. But the party’s silence and non-action seem to suggest otherwise. That’s how I see it anyway.

But unlike MCA, the MIC is bolder and appear clearer, despite playing with words.

Party president Tan Sri S.A. Vigneswaran is on record saying MIC will support the leadership of Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and work with his Bersatu party “pending the BN Supreme Council decision on the matter”.

Umno is dominant in BN and the party is at “war” with Bersatu save for what is known as the “minister cluster” in its midst.

I think we can add two and two together with regards to the impending BN Supreme Council decision. The Umno president is BN chairman. And the coalition secretary-general is from Umno.

Yet, MIC has clearly stated it will continue to support Muhyiddin although it “respects” Umno’s decision to end ties with Bersatu.

That to me, is ditching BN.

According to news portal Malaysia Now, MIC leaders have criticized their Umno counterparts. This rarely or has never happened in the past. And it was reported that delegates at the recent MIC general assembly were “by and large happy with their president’s stance in backing Muhyiddin despite moves by Umno not to align with Perikatan Nasional”.

And the portal also claimed it had been told by the delegates that they felt it’s time for MIC, which has stayed loyal to BN all this while together with “big brother” Umno, to embrace a new era of coalition politics.

An attention grabber was when MIC invited Muhyiddin to the general assembly which the PM obliged.

All that is as clear as it can get as far as MIC’s motive is concerned and as far as its continuous role in BN goes.

Some commentators say MIC is seeing a lifeline in Perikatan Nasional. At least one commentator says MIC and MCA need PN more than they need BN, especially now after years living under the thumb of Umno.

MIC and MCA have long been seen as subservient to Umno and the kowtow attitude resulted in them losing support of the communities they claim to represent.

But the question now is, will they kowtow no more if they are officially in PN? Will they be vocal and stomp their feet in bringing up issues and problems faced by the Chinese and Indian communities? Or put it the other way, will PN be tolerant to noises made by MIC and MCA?

Remember this Perikatan Nasional government is known and proud to be called a Malay-Muslim administration?

Remember what PAS said recently that a two-thirds majority win in the general election would see the party move towards the redrawing of electoral boundaries that would “benefit Muslims” and also “increase the number of parliamentary seats in Malay-majority areas”?

Need we be reminded that in the absence of Umno, the Hadi-led PAS is the dominant party in Perikatan Nasional?

Let’s be honest. PAS is much stronger than Muhyiddin’s Bersatu, something the PM himself knows. And Bersatu needs the solid support of PAS to survive and get Malay votes.

It’s no secret that Bersatu wants to be seen as the new champion of the so- called Malay agenda (replacing Umno) which they think can only be achieved with the help of PAS.

Will PAS, and for that matter Bersatu, listen to or tolerate noises made by MIC and MCA just because the two non-Malay parties are in Perikatan Nasional?

What are the chances of MCA and MIC not resuming playing kowtow when they sit in the same coalition with PAS and Bersatu as “partners”? Would they be “equal partners”?

Bear in mind many see MIC and MCA presence in the Perikatan Nasional cabinet as “token” and “to make up the numbers”.

A Chinese political observer who does not wish to be named told me back in March last year that he saw the “minor” inclusion of MCA and MIC in the overwhelmingly Malay-Muslim Perikatan Nasional administration as “cosmetics to give PN a national outlook. That is all”.

By being in Perikatan Nasional won’t change that!

In the past, MCA and MIC had won good numbers of seats in Malay-majority constituencies. In short, they won with Malay votes obtained through the “good offices” of Umno, meaning Umno pulled in the votes as the Malays then were solidly behind Umno and voted anybody who were friends of Umno. This cannot be denied.

Now such voting trend is fast disappearing. Umno itself cannot muster such pull power. Furthermore, Malays would most likely vote for Malay candidates. And they have got many parties to choose from: Umno, Bersatu, PAS, PKR, Amanah. Heck even DAP.

Another point to ponder is, unlike Umno, Muhyididin’s Bersatu cannot pull in the Malay votes for MCA or MIC.

You see, Malays are not particularly excited about Bersatu despite the party having its president as prime minister.

I’ll end by simply saying MCA and MIC are at a crossroads. We all know what a wrong turn and a wrong step will bring.

(Mohsin Abdullah is a veteran journalist and now a freelancer who writes about this, that and everything else.)