Sin Chew Daily

The Umno general assembly has resolved to quit the PN government, and party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and the supreme council will decide later an exit date.

For the time being, Umno and Bersatu will go separate ways. We can't tell for sure whether the two parties will be friends again in future for their own interests, but we feel such a possibility is quite slim, because Umno will invariably have to play second fiddle to Bersatu if it were to stay in the PN coalition.

Ahmad Zahid has earlier said that the cooperation between Umno and Bersatu will only last until the dissolution of the current parliament, and that BN will not work with Bersatu come the next general election.

Meanwhile, PN president cum prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin has also asserted that if Umno refuses to compromise on seat allocation, PN will field candidates to contest all 222 seats in GE15. Looks like no side is prepared to back down at all.

If the standoff is to go on until the next election, the fight is going to be of unprecedented intensity, as the three major political camps PN, PH and BN are poised to come down in full force to seize the crown. No party or coalition will have the absolute edge.

Even though these rival camps might have opted not to work together before the election, that doesn't mean they are not going to form a joint government after that. Where this is concerned, Ahmad Zahid has made his stand very clear: BN will adopt an open attitude and is willing to negotiate with any party to form a new government.

It is a last ditch effort for Umno to break ranks with PN and fight the election war alone under BN. If the party were to remain in PN, it will be hard for it to fight for the seats it has wanted alongside Bersatu, PAS and Azmin's camp.

In the last election, of all the 222 parliamentary seats up for grabs, Umno fielded 120 candidates and won 54. In the next election, it is impossible for PN parties to set aside 120 seats for Umno so that it has the chance to stage a huge comeback. To put it plainly, Umno is today only a chess piece to reinforce the PN government. Umno will eventually get marginalized if it stays put.

By exiting PN, BN/Umno is actually making the cake significantly larger so that BN can contest all the 222 seats, giving different intra-party factions as well as young politicians an expanded platform to perform. They won't get the chance if they just sit there waiting for Bersatu to distribute the seats to them.

With the exit from the PN coalition, BN/Umno will then get the opportunity to vie for a bigger share of the political cake. Even if it may not have the absolute advantage in three-cornered fights vis-à-vis PH and PN, at least it will get the bargaining chip in the negotiations to form a joint government at a later stage.

In the last election, Umno alone secured 20.9% of all the votes. If the worst is already over for Umno, there is always this possibility of the party making a significant comeback in GE15, provided that party leaders now holding ministerial posts in PN administration do not turn against the party. That said, it is inevitable that some pro-Muhyiddin leaders in Umno may turn to support the ruling coalition.

By the way, if the PN coalition eventually collapses, it is unavoidable for the Malay vote bank to split into three parts, and PH is perceived as the biggest beneficiary of such division.

In the 2013 general elections, Pakatan Rakyat won 50.8% of the popular vote (including 14.8% from PAS). In the 2018 election, PH under Tun Mahathir clinched 48.3% of support (including 6% from Bersatu), while Umno secured 20.9%, and PAS 16.6%. Apparently, barring any dramatic shift in the support pattern, PH is expected to get 35%, Umno 21%, PAS 17%, and Bersatu only 15-20% given its eroded strength now.

PH, BN (Umno/MCA/MIC) and PN (Bersatu/PAS) are in for tightly fought three-cornered fights that will give the PH a slight advantage but not enough to claim the prized federal administration. In the end, GPS of Sarawak will very likely be the ultimate kingmaker.