By Mohsin Abdullah

How many times have we heard of talks that the prime minister is thinking of calling for a snap general election?

Many right? Speculations, forecast, predictions made by people in the know, i.e. political analysts, commentators and politicians themselves. Naturally.

And remarks and action by Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin plus the situation or predicament if you like that he (and his administration) are in "suggest" a snap election is always in the PM's mind.

If not for anything else, then it's to dispel once and for all accusation that his administration is a back door one and to instill confidence with a big majority to rid of the razor-thin margin currently putting his Perikatan Nasional coalition in federal power. All this even before opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's claim he now has the numbers to take over., which is adding on the his "headache".

Somehow the PM has stalled in making the final crucial decision. And he has his reasons which many know all too well but which we will talk about in a while.

But the just concluded Sabah election is to be the big factor in helping Muhyiddin decide whether to call or not a snap election. That's what pundits and analysts, and need I say politicians including those in government, believe.

And Muhyiddin himself signaled during campaigning in Sabah that he would call for early national polls if Gabungan Rakyat Sabah or GRS, a coalition made of his Perikatan National parties together with BN and PBS, won the Sabah election.

And now GRS has won. Many would agree the victory has put Muhyiddin in a more "solid" position going into federal polls.

Datuk Seri Azmin Ali, who is seen as the de facto deputy prime minister, as expected is saying the Sabah win is proof of the people's confidence in Muhyiddin as prime minister.

So will Muhyiddin finally make the all important decision? Has the Sabah win boosted or emboldened the PM to call for snap polls? But first, there are things to consider.

The Sabah win is not as convincing as he would like it to be. Winning 38 seats out of the 72 at stake, his coalition holds only a two-seat margin. Too close for comfort, reminding all and sundry of the slim majority the Muhyiddin administration holds at federal level.

One of the reasons Muhyiddin has not called for snap polls is the concern or fear, if you like, that his own party Bersatu would fare badly. That is putting it nicely.

In Sabah, Bersatu won 11 seats. All things considered, commendable I would say. But BN, i.e. Umno, has won 14. That is not doing Bersatu any good as far as confidence and bargaining power goes.

"If anything, the results show Muhyiddin is ever so dependent on Umno. So, until he gets full Umno backing, he won't rush into calling elections as he risks Bersatu getting, forgive the expression, thrashed," say a political observer.

In the peninsula, Umno is much stronger. And the party is already in alliance with PAS in Muafakat Nasional. And both parties are stronger than Bersatu. And they are so strong that they, in particular Umno, are dictating terms, so to speak.

Umno has always wanted a snap election. The party is still calling for it as they truly believe they, with PAS, can win the next general election. 

"Yes, Umno wants early polls to, again pardon the expression, finish off Muhyiddin, and they are bolstered by the Sabah results," according to the observer.

Earlier, PAS was with Umno in wanting a snap poll. Now the party's stand on this matter is a bit unclear. PAS is after all in both Muafakat Nasional and Perikatan Nasional. Not easy to read, I would say, which has put allies watching PAS very closely. Suspiciously even.

As Dr Yusri Ibrahim,head of research at Ilham Center puts it, the current situation is that the level of understanding and cooperation among Bersatu, Umno and PAS "is not very stable". 

Muhyiddin, according to Yusri, needs to resolve internal conflicts involving parties in his government.

"Before calling for election, Muhyiddin must settle two important issues, i.e. the status of his coalition as well as that of his allies, seat allocation and a final decision on their prime minister candidate," says Yusri.

It's no secret that every party in Perikatan Nasional wants the prime minister to be from their own, from their midst.

At the time of writing, the situation is very fluid in Sabah as in the words of people in the know, "anything can happen".

A slight movement here and there can see gains made being lost. No explanation needed. You know what it means.

To state the obvious, Muhyiddin has to look at the Sabah situation before deciding his next move, in particular whether to call for snap election or otherwise. Take look real hard. It's a given he is doing just that.

(Mohsin Abdullah is a veteran journalist and now a freelancer who writes about this, that and everything else.)