By Lim Sue Goan, Sin Chew Daily

Mahathir's announcement of a new party "Pejuang" has catalyzed a new round of exodus from PPBM.

In the Pagoh division led by PM Muhyiddin, it is said that thousands of PPBM members are ready to make the exit, forcing the party to agree to join Umno-PAS "Muafakat Nasional".

Mahathir's latest move has shaken the PM's confidence as his party's grassroots power is abating while he has little faith he can win non-Malay votes.

Out of no choice he has to take his party to join MN. At least with the Malay votes of Umno and PAS, PPBM could be spared from the worst come the next general election.

Nevertheless, for PPBM to join MN, it means Muhyiddin is submitting himself under the pressure from Umno and has given up the idea of registering Perikatan Nasional as a political entity.

As a Perikatan Nasional leader with real power, Muhyiddin has the authority to pass down commands and decide the direction and policies of the PN government. But in MN, his party will have to renounce that authority.

Take for example, representatives from PPBM Youth, who were invited by BN Youth to attend the launch of the Slim by-election machinery, were booed by BN supporters while their party PPBM could do nothing but swallow the humiliation in silence.

As if that was not enough, Umno president Ahmad Zahid even said with much arrogance when he delivered his speech that PPBM had to display its sincerity in the by-election campaign as a faithful ally, and make sure all the 6,000 plus votes the party won in 2018 would go to BN this time.

In 2018 general election, PPBM won 6,144 votes in Slim with the support of Pakatan Harapan and non-Malay voters. And in the upcoming by-election, PH's votes will invariably be diverted to Mahathir's camp and it is impossible for PPBM to retain the 6,000 votes this time. Obviously Ahmad Zahid had the intention of embarrassing Muhyiddin.

By joining MN, PPBM will only submit itself to Umno, which will in turn make MN the dominant force within the PN administration, with BN, GPS and PN-friendly parties in Sabah being mere followers. With majority of Malay votes on its side, sure enough MN will have the loudest voice in the coalition.

It is within anticipation that PN's seat allocation in West Malaysia will very much be dictated by MN, and the remaining seats will then be distributed to other minor parties in the coalition. With Malay seats not even enough to be distributed among the three MN parties, other BN components like MCA and MIC — which are looking at mixed constituencies with larger Malay populations than Chinese — may as well see the number of their contested seats drastically reduced.

The same goes for the upcoming state election in Sabah. Although PPBM has said it intends to contest 45 seats, the state PPBM may have to be sacrificed now that Muhyiddin has announced his decision to join MN. Umno is expected to still have the lion's share of seats, a lot more than PPBM, so that if the election is won, Umno gets to secure the chief minister post.

Muhyiddin has bigger and bigger challenges awaiting him. First and foremost he has to ensure that Perikatan Nasional will beat Warisan and PH in Sabah in a bid to consolidate the credibility of the PN government. As Warisan president Shafie Apdal is the PM-designate favored by former prime minister Tun Mahathir, Muhyiddin must never lose to Shafie, or the claim by polls that the PM enjoys respectable approval rating will be unsubstantiated.

Secondly, he has to make sure Umno reps will not betray him and PPBM will not be further weakened so that he can get his 2021 Budget adopted smoothly in the Dewan Rakyat this November.

Currently Umno is the "big brother" in two different political alliances, BN and MN. The party's leaders are constantly eyeing the opportunity to undermine the strength of PPBM and perhaps devour it up in the end. They are more than happy to see PPBM's elected reps and members detracted by Mahathir's new party in a way to undercut Muhyiddin's influence.

Muhyiddin needs more than ever the ten pro-Azmin MPs to join his party. Segamat MP Edmund Santhara has already joined, and housing and local government minster Zuraida Kamaruddin will announce her decision to join on Aug 22. Muhyiddin will only have peace of mind if the other pro-Azmin MPs also do likewise.

Thirdly, Muhyiddin has to ensure fair and rational seat allocation among the MN parties. Although PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim has assured that MN will support Muhyiddin as PM if they win the 15th GE. This, nevertheless, may not be what Umno wants!

Muhyiddin can only keep his PM post if his party contests at least 50 of the 165 parliamentary seats up for grabs in West Malaysia, not too far off from Umno.

He must also make sure his party is not performing too poorly in the election, unless he wants to be a lame duck prime minister!