By Jason Loh Seong Wei

Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu with the connivance of US President Donald Trump, is moving to present a false dichotomy based on the "Deal of the Century" and de facto annexation, but now that the Deal is dead in the water, the former thinks he now has the opportunity to proceed with the latter, the circumstances of which has been made propitious by the present COVID-19 crisis engulfing the world.

Netanyahu's plot to annex the West Bank—set to kick in on July 1—is purely selfish and that is to preserve his political legacy. Needless to say, the de facto annexation is illegal and unacceptable under international law.

Just to take three examples on this:

• UN Security Council Resolution 242, unanimously adopted following the 1967 War declares "the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war". It further calls on Israel to immediately withdraw from the Occupied Territories in reference to the West Bank;

• In its most recent legal analysis, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in 2019 upheld and reiterate forcefully the provisions of Article 2(4) of the Charter of the UN which "forbids the use of force against the territorial integrity of a State and, consequently, the transmission of sovereign title over territories resulting from such use of force"; and

• Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention (1949) specifies the temporary nature of occupation. That is to say, occupation cannot be permanent which then leads to annexation.

The borders by which Israel is legally and politically expected to respect and abide with remains the pre-1967 delineation with the whole of West Bank free from occupation and East Jerusalem as the capital of a sovereign State of Palestine (Dawlat Filastin).

But Netanyahu's deal with his closest rival, Benny Gantz, means that he is able to remain in power for the duration of his corruption charges trial. One of the critical outcomes of the negotiations to form the Blue and White coalition is the annexation plan agreed by both parties.

By enabling him to remain in power, he would be in a position to influence the Judicial Appointments Committee, something that would play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the corruption trial.

Furthermore, according to Article 8 of the coalition agreement, if he is disqualified by the High Court from serving as prime minister, the coalition parties will act jointly to bring the Knesset to dissolution and new elections called. 

In other words, Article 8 represents a form of indirect judicial intervention, as it is again aimed at saving Netanyahu's skin.

No one in his right mind should ever acknowledge that annexation could well be conceived of as an alternative option, let alone a viable one, in the broad contours—however amorphous at this stage—of the blueprint towards a two-state solution.

Basically, Netanyahu has strangled and killed the two-state solution just for the sake of his political survival. But at what cost?

Al Jazeera recently reported on a statement by Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh in an aptly worded tweet that "the formation of an Israeli annexation government means ending the two-state solution and the dismantling of the rights of the people of Palestine". 

Hanan Ashrawi, a long-time and senior PLO official, in response to the same issue of the coalition government, said "this is extremely dangerous not just for Palestine, for Israel, for the region, but for the world."

Paradoxically, annexation also embodies an existential threat to the security of Israel.

The internationally renowned and respected Foreign Policy journal in its recent article "Netanyahu's Annexation Plan is a Threat to Israel's National Security" has come out strongly against the annexation plot, railing it as a political horror move that is self-defeating and will reverberate throughout the Middle East with long-lasting ramifications.

One of the authors of the article is Ami Ayalon, former head of Shin Bet (domestic intelligence agency and counterpart of Mossad) and of the Israeli navy. The article also mentions that 220 retired Israeli military and security officials have signed a full-page advertisement on newspapers early last month urging Gantz to block Netanyahu's move.

The main contention in the article, however, is that annexation would undermine Israel's peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan.

Annexation highly risks an irreversible fallout that will ensue in Israel's isolation and marginalization in the Middle East. This means increased security vulnerability, which it has no one to blame but Netanyahu.

Following on from this, Turkey too will have to cut diplomatic ties and forced to take a stronger stance that could see its influence grow in the West Bank.

We could also extend the logic further by highlighting that other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman and Chad, which do not have official relations with Israel but nonetheless have cultivated direct or indirect friendly ties, might be forced to recalibrate their position.

The clock is ticking and Netanyahu is banking that Trump will give the go ahead.

Is Netanyahu that callous as to sacrifice more Israeli and Palestinian lives at the altar of his political agenda?

Going forward to more immediate considerations, perhaps paradoxically Trump—whose approving eye Netanyahu is looking up to—might also be the one to preclude the tragedy of annexation.

Better still, the more practical way is for a preemptive move by Turkey, Egypt and Jordan to threaten the breaking of diplomatic relations and working towards preventing de facto annexation by all means in conjunction with the Arab League, OIC and the wider international community.

The future of peace in the Middle East is at stake!

(Jason Loh Seong Wei is Head of Social, Law and Human Rights at EMIR Research, an independent think tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based on rigorous research.)