Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) scored a sweeping victory in the Negeri Sembilan state election, demonstrating an apparently unstoppable momentum.

Had it not been for their own reckless blunders, their political rivals would never have found an opening to strike back.

Upon forming a joint state government in Negeri Sembilan, BN and PN ought to have repaid the strong mandate from Malay voters through sound governance.

Instead, acting in utter disregard of the Federal Constitution, they attempted to remove the Yang di-Pertuan Besar of Negeri Sembilan, Tuanku Mukhriz Tuanku Munawir—only to trap themselves in a political checkmate.

Negeri Sembilan Mentri Besar Datuk Ismail Lasim changed his stance four times in a span of just 10 days.

On Sep 6, he declared his full support for Tuanku Mukhriz. By Sep 9, he claimed he had signed the proclamation related to the Yang di-Pertuan Besar under duress. On Sep 15, he insisted that the Mentri Besar lacks the unilateral power to terminate or declare a Ruler’s position vacant.

Yet, on Sep 16, he abruptly reversed course, asserting that the April 19 proclamation document was in effect and recognising Tunku Nadzaruddin Tuanku Ja’afar as the new Yang di-Pertuan Besar.

This erratic back-and-forth revealed a leader who had completely lost his footing, destroying his credibility in the process.

After Tuanku Mukhriz dismissed all 10 State Executive Councillors (EXCO) on Sep 20, Ismail attempted to resist.

On Sep 22, the Negeri Sembilan Exco convened a special meeting and unanimously resolved to suspend state secretary Datuk Mohd Zafir Ibrahim and state legal adviser Datuk Muzalmah Mustapha Kamal with immediate effect.

However, the Attorney General’s Chambers (AGC) issued a statement that very night clarifying that the EXCO possessed no legal authority to suspend either official. Under Article 37 of the 1959 Negeri Sembilan State Constitution, civil service appointments and suspensions fall strictly under the jurisdiction of the Public Services Commission and the Judicial and Legal Service Commission.

Failing in his bid to oust the state secretary and legal adviser, Ismail and his ex-EXCO members were blocked on the morning of Sep 23 when attempting to “seek an audience with the new ruler, Tengku Nazaruddin.”

Simultaneously, the 10 ousted EXCO members were barred from entering their offices at the state secretariat building, following the official gazetting of their dismissal by the Ruler.

With that, Ismail completely lost control of the state administration. Constitutional interpretation remained firmly in the hands of the AGC and the state legal adviser; state security and building access were enforced by the police; and civil servants followed the directives of the state secretary, who adhered strictly to the decrees of Tuanku Mukhriz.

Other key figures involved could not evade legal repercussions. Tan Sri Dr Rais Yatim, honorary chairman of Parti Wawasan Negara, faces sedition charges for publicly offering congratulations to Tengku Nazaruddin as the purported 12th Yang di-Pertuan Besar of Negeri Sembilan

Left with little recourse, Ismail attempted to talk his way out, making another U-turn to claim that the EXCO had never formally resolved to remove or appoint a Ruler. He then shifted blame to the previous Pakatan Harapan (PH) administration, calling the crisis a mess left behind by his predecessors.

Yet, former Pakatan Harapan Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun had explicitly refused to sign the proclamation document—whereas Ismail signed it himself, committing a fatal miscalculation.

Ismail now finds himself in a complete deadlock.

Having signed the proclamation, submitting a new list of EXCO nominees to Tuanku Mukhriz would amount to re-acknowledging him as the legitimate monarch. Conversely, refusing to submit a new list leaves the state executive unable to function.

A paralysed state administration ultimately punishes the people of Negeri Sembilan while inflicting severe damage on the reputation of both BN and PN.

Under the state constitution, if the state legislative assembly fails to convene within a six-month window—a deadline falling in January next year—it will automatically dissolve.

If this constitutional crisis drags on for months, it will spill over into the national political landscape, severely hampering BN and PN’s efforts to consolidate the Malay vote ahead of the general election.

While Umno embarrassed itself in Negeri Sembilan, PAS fared no better at the helm of PN. PAS president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang assumed that taking over the coalition leadership would allow him to sideline Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu).

However, Bersatu filed a formal complaint with the Registrar of Societies (RoS). In response, the RoS ordered PN to suspend all activities immediately and prohibited the use of the “Perikatan Nasional” name and logo until a final decision is rendered.

PAS had previously barred Bersatu from attending the PN Supreme Council meeting on July 16 and disallowed Bersatu candidates from contesting under the PN banner in the Negeri Sembilan state election.

It was PAS’s own arrogance and disregard for procedural rules that gave Bersatu the opening to retaliate.

Although PAS may accuse the RoS of political motivation—given the timing ahead of the Melaka state election—the predicament remains self-inflicted.

While Parti Wawasan Negara can run under PAS’s “Moon” symbol in Melaka, asking Gerakan to contest under the PAS banner in Chinese-majority and mixed constituencies is a guaranteed non-starter.

Should the RoS ultimately deregister PN, it will throw PAS’s strategy for Putrajaya into complete disarray. While PAS could challenge the decision in court, legal proceedings will likely drag past the general election, rendering a favourable judgment too late to be useful.

Pressure from Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim may strengthen the resolve of Umno and PAS to forge an electoral pact in Melaka. However, under the weight of the Negeri Sembilan constitutional crisis, their joint momentum has noticeably weakened.

Adding to their troubles, Umno’s solidarity fund for Najib—launched to raise RM50 million for Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s court fine—has managed to collect only RM2 million to date.

Umno is reported to have 3.25 million of members and a conversion rate of under 4% reflects a cold reception from the grassroots.

Malay political unity operates on trends. Once public confidence evaporates, how much longer can that momentum last?

(Lim Sue Goan is the Chief Leader Writer for Sin Chew Daily.)