U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to office in January struck the world like the relapse of an ailment.

For many countries, the condition has been marked by confusion, dismay and uncertainty, which in turn have led to mistrust and even antipathy.

Consequently, the existing world order appears to be growing fragile.

The U.S.-European alliance in particular is weakening, to the likely benefit of Russia and China.

As international relations deteriorate under Trump’s influence, three symptoms can be seen.

The Trump administration is attacking the Americas, trampling the weak and antagonising the Global South.

Attacking the Americas

Trump, who has started to behave as if he were the emperor of the Western Hemisphere, often calls attention to U.S. President William McKinley, who served from 1897 to 1901.

In an era of imperialism, McKinley led the United States into the Spanish-American War, compelling Spain to cede sovereignty over Puerto Rico and other territories to the United States, and effectively making Cuba a U.S. protectorate.

Today, countries of North and South America have become targets as Trump directs threats and intimidation at Canada, Mexico and Panama. Many countries indignantly feel that Trump is treating them like vassal states.

Trampling the weak

Europeans too have been subjected to Trumpist attacks.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance sharply criticised Europe at the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 14 by saying that the real threat to Europe comes not from Russia or China but “from within.”

Pundits in Europe began to say that the United States was turning into a threat to European democracy and that Europe should start “de-risking” its relationship with Washington.

Trump further aggravated the split by calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “a dictator,” falsely claiming in a Putinesque manner that Ukraine started the war.

In a final blow, Trump wrecked a U.S.-Ukraine summit in the Oval Office on Feb. 28 by humiliating Zelenskyy.

After the Ukrainian president pointed out that previous U.S. administrations – including Trump’s first – had not stopped Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump argued that Zelenskyy held no cards, essentially commanding him to submit to U.S. orders.

Many of Trump’s supporters identify as Christians, but his demand that the weak obey the mighty contradicts basic Christian teachings, which place high importance on helping the weak.

Trump’s words insulted the Ukrainian people and debased the prestige of the American people.

Many European leaders immediately rallied to support Zelenskyy, stressing that the aggressor and the victim should be clearly distinguished.

Antagonising the Global South

The countries of the Global South are also irritated by Trump. They appear to interpret his dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) as an illustration of Washington’s disregard for poorer nations.

This may drive them to rely on China more than before. Many were infuriated by his proposal to “take over” the Palestinian territory of Gaza and displace two million residents to third countries, as such actions would be grave violations of international law.

The basic grammar of the globe appears to have shifted away from justice, liberalism and multilateralism and toward strength, crude national self-interest and unilateralism.

How will this bout of Trumpism play out?

These three symptoms of Trumpism appear to show its resemblance to the Jacobins of the French Revolution.

These radicals terrorised and executed those they deemed enemies, only to self-destructively bring about an enormous backlash, and their regime ended in disaster.

Based on this analogy, I can offer two near-future prognoses. What actually happens may fall somewhere between these two extremes.

Self-destruction or oligarchy

The first prognosis is that Trump’s Jacobinic and mercurial behaviour will prove to be self-defeating.

His challenges to the existing order will prove abortive, resulting in no drastic change even as he leaves much confusion and disorder in his wake.

For example, his economic policy of seeking lower inflation while also imposing high tariffs appears illogical.

His constant dismissal of talented professionals from a variety of posts looks self-destructive, empowering the arguments of his opponents.

With his excessive optimism and insufficient understanding of the complexity of geopolitics, he may fail to produce any substantial outcomes.

The process of “de-Trumpification” may start rather quickly if his term ends on schedule in four years. He might be remembered as no more than one of the most awkward and least prudent presidents in U.S. history.

The second prognosis is more depressing: The world will eventually be split into spheres of influence, separately dominated by the United States, China, Russia and perhaps Europe.

Trump, like Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, never hides his oligarchic inclination to control the world alongside other major powers.

Trump’s pro-Russian approach and his disregard for Europe may foreshadow a backward world of illiberal 19th-century visions.

Countries of the Global South, including many in Asia, may try to keep their distance equally from any of these spheres.

The result could be a new order in which the world is more predictable but more stifling. Trump’s Jacobinic moves on the international stage may be deterred by threats from the authoritarian leaders of rival spheres.

Lamentably, be it the first prognosis or the second, the world of tomorrow – or at least the next four years of tomorrows – will likely be no healthier and more dismal than it is today.

(Kagefumi Ueno is a civilisation essayist and former Japanese Ambassador to Guatemala from 2001 to 2004, and the Holy See from 2006 to 2010.)