PAS leader Fadhli Shaari revealed something that set off a maelstrom of reactions from politicians: Umno and PAS leaders have been having a series of meetings on potential cooperation.

The basis of these discussions, as he claimed, was the dissatisfaction Umno leaders had with working with Harapan.

This claim also came after Umno Deputy President Mohamad Hassan said Umno might not cooperate with PH in the next general elections.

Although this invited some negative reactions among PH leaders, this should hardly be seen as surprising.

It is unrealistic to expect that warring parties such as Umno and PH, especially with ideological opponents like DAP, would be able to reconcile just because they work in the same government now.

Leaders of the parties may be able to put aside their differences and work professionally, but this does not mean their political incentives change and their grassroots now grow forgetful of the past.

The intention of Fadhli Shaari is also nothing new. To signal a potential defection or split in your enemies is a classic tactic that both sides have used.

Fadhli’s purpose is to sow distrust among Unity Government leaders and create chaos at the grassroots.

This is somehow easier to do given the animosity that Umno and PH had in the past.

However, if this tactic was meant to induce a defection to the point of collapsing the government, then this tactic is bound to fail.

The reason why Umno and PH are working together now is less because they adore each other, but because it was the necessary course of action.

The total seats won by the mainstream parties necessitated such a diverse composition to lead the country.

In other words, Fadhli’s tactic was bound to fail if its aim was to shake the government to collapse.

Of course, if what Fadhli and PAS are looking for is to test the waters for GE16, then maybe this is a wise strategy.

What Fadhli is trying to do is to draw out the anti-Zahid faction, most likely led by Tok Mat, so that Umno does not work with PH in the next general election.

Since Umno could not overturn Zahid’s decision and preference to work with PH, the only way is to put pressure externally.

It is becoming increasingly clear that PAS may not want to count on Bersatu to deliver the Malay seats outside of Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah.

Even though Umno is far from its peak performance, what PAS could always still sell with Umno is a mix of Islamism and Malay nationalism. This is still perceived as an ideal concoction to win the majority of votes and seats in the country.

The split between PAS and Bersatu came at a good time as Umno had indicated a potential difference of opinion with Zahid.

The only question left to ask is how will anyone in Umno go against the wishes of the president?

Zahid Hamidi has locked up the system that contesting in top two positions is academic matters rather than one that is substantively fought.

Additionally, if the Umno-PAS partnership was actually viable besides being a conceptual idea, then how will this be different from the Muafakat Nasional partnership between 2019 and 2022?

I suspect that this is not a simple question of personality clashes between leaders, but rather a reality check if parties that compete for similar votes could work together.

Both Umno and PAS see themselves as primary leaders of the Malay-Muslim votes, and would always see themselves arguing it out without any finality.

If Fadhli had all the considerations above, then I think his claim was a tactical stunt that could work in his favour if he has a longer-term aim.

However, the possibility of him using this issue as a distraction strategy for PN’s internal split is equally high.

If it was true that he was merely using this issue as a distraction from PN’s split, then this Umno-PAS claim would not be strong at all.

If he was merely using this issue as a distraction and confirmation to his constituency and party members, then it may not be sufficient. Because PAS, that has dumped every coalition partner they’ve worked with, will be running out of partners to work with.

PAS should also not assume that just because Umno has fewer seats, they would not one day pack up and leave, like how PAS was with other coalition partners.

In any case, the meetings between Umno and PAS leaders may not be a bad thing if it helps remind them again why they could not work together, no matter how attractive the notion of a Malay government could be.