Russia’s two-year invasion of Ukraine has once again proven the truth of the old proverb “Menang jadi arang, kalah jadi abu” (win to charcoal, lose to dust).

Both the aggressor and the defender have suffered greatly from the consequences of the war, although the former should take the blame for starting the fire.

In the end, there will be no real winner in the war.

The invasion should also serve as a warning for nations, including ASEAN member states, to never depend on others, regardless of their might or proximity, when it comes to territorial integrity.

Conversely, bigger powers cannot bully smaller neighbors without any consequences.

Amid the intensified rivalry between the United States and China for the sphere of influence, especially in the South China Sea, the 10-member ASEAN should not allow itself to fall into the trap of the hegemonic competition between the two superpowers.

It will not be easy for the ASEAN states, especially if they are lured by economic incentives or military protection.

Many ASEAN member states still rely on the US for security and defense against China’s growing dominance in the region.

China and four of its ASEAN neighbors have been embroiled in decades-long overlapping claims in the resource-rich South China Sea, but this does not wipe out the fact that ASEAN as a whole is economically dependent on China, which is why ties between the two have remained sustainable.

In the case of Russia, its overconfidence has cost it more than it had anticipated.

President Vladimir Putin, however, has little choice but to continue the war until he thinks his mission is accomplished.

On the other side, Ukraine, too, seemed certain the West would fully support its fight against Russia. However, it later learned the gap between hope and reality can be gaping.

After two years of war, both Russia and Ukraine have conceded losses not only in the form of the lives of thousands of troops and civilians, but also the devastation of their economies.

For its part, Russia is under economic sanctions from the West and isolation from the outside world.

Domestically, Putin is also facing rising opposition, although this cannot match his absolute power.

Following Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, the UN General Assembly, including all ASEAN members, overwhelmingly condemned the military aggression.

Only five countries — Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria — voted against the condemnation while 141 voted in favor.

In the beginning of the war, the European Union, NATO and the US vowed to not let Putin go unpunished and to provide all necessary assistance to Ukraine, especially arms.

They said they would never give up until Putin withdrew his troops from Ukraine unconditionally.

US President Joe Biden vowed to provide full support to help President Volodymyr Zelensky in liberating his country from Russia’s invasion.

But the Republican-dominated Congress blocked much of Biden’s military supply to Kyiv.

It would be a nightmare for Ukraine if Donald Trump won this November election.

Trump is an admirer of Putin and has repeatedly said that all NATO members should pay more for their security protection.

As described by The Guardian in its Feb. 21, 2024 edition, when the invasion of Ukraine began two years ago, some predicted it could take as little as three days for Russian forces to capture the capital, Kyiv. But they were wrong, and Putin now seems to be waiting for Western support for Ukraine to wither.

“Though support for Ukraine among Europeans remains broad, barely 10 percent believe it can defeat Russia, according to an EU-wide survey, with some form of “compromise settlement” seen as the most likely endpoint,” The Guardian wrote.

What is happening now to Ukraine can befall any nation. The invasion of Ukraine has taught us a dear lesson about the invaluable price of sovereign freedom. Even allies cannot protect us, we only have ourselves.

With losses mounting on both sides, peace should be the most logical endgame Russia and Ukraine strive for.