The ‘de facto’ senior partner within the Anwar administration, Umno is working hard to push for a royal pardon for former prime minister Najib Razak.

This issue cannot be dismissed lightly because the future of the Anwar administration could hang in the balance, no matter what happens.

There are consequences far beyond any pardon.

There is great public outrage just over the thought that Najib would receive any royal pardon.

Najib being freed from jail and exempted of the RM210 million fine is just unpalatable for many.

Senior Pakatan Harapan leaders, including veterans Lim Kit Siang of DAP, and Hassan Abdul Karim of PKR have warned that if Najib receives a pardon, the future of the Anwar administration would be at stake.

Former prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob also warns that there are now cracks within the coalition which could eventually lead to an irreparable break-up.

In addition, Malaysia’s legal and judiciary system is under threat of manipulation.

Law minister Azalina Othman Said provided information from a Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) probe into the high court judge who convicted Najib, concluding that the judge had breached the “judge’s code of ethics” and had a conflict of interest.

This appears to be weaponization of the legal system to attack the judiciary, as the MACC has no jurisdiction on such matters.

Was there any coalition deal?

The fact that Law Minister Azalina supplied Najib’s defense team with the leaked MACC documents, implies some form of implicit deal between Umno’s Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Anwar.

Zahid himself still faces 47 charges of criminal breach of trust, corruption and money laundering over his charity foundation Yayasan Akalbudi, and Najib is in prison.

Any understanding on the above matters can only be speculative. However, on Zahid’s part, there are deep expectations that he will have the charges against him either dismissed or withdrawn.

Umno’s supreme council, which is under the firm control of Zahid, is demanding that Najib receive a royal pardon at the soonest possible time.

To some, the “soonest possible time” could mean around seven years. However, Umno’s Najib supporters are looking for an immediate release.

Although within Anwar’s circle it’s known that Anwar is personally against any royal pardon for Najib, he appears to be held hostage by Zahid.

Zahid is effectively the most powerful person in the cabinet. He controls at least 59 MPs in parliament, with GPS and GRS support. This potentially makes Zahid a potential kingmaker in any government.

If Zahid doesn’t get what he wants, then unpredictable things can happen.

Hence, if Anwar wants to keep his administration intact, he must give in to the will of Zahid.

Under such as scenario (use your imagination), Zahid and 58 other MPs may switch allegiance to Perikatan Nasional (PN), and Malaysia will have a Malay-centric government once again.

A favorable speaker would interpret the “anti-hopping laws” in their favor, and a large section of the electorate, i.e. those in the Malay heartlands would see Umno as coming back to where they should be.

This is not unforeseeable, as it has happened three times over the last five years.

Anwar is not acting upon his own free will. Zahid is acting upon self-interest, and there would be many within Umno who would be pleased to be part of a Malay-centric government, once again.

Where would DAP stand?

The second issue is the DAP’s displeasure over the pardon issue.

DAP is a block of 40 MPs in parliament. If DAP remains silent over the Najib pardon issue, and being part of a government that implicitly supports Zahid getting off his charges, DAP support will drop dramatically.

DAP stands for the rule of law, and has been staunchly against corruption.

Being part of a government that allows Najib to be free just might be too much. At the extreme, this could force DAP to leave the government but remain a friendly party on the cross benches. This would make the Anwar administration a minority government.

This could be a major test for DAP; practicality verses ideology. The issue could potentially rip DAP in half.

Anwar’s optimal solution: A CSA with PAS

The best solution for Anwar would be to seek a Confidence and Supply Agreement (CSA) with PAS.

PAS has 43 MPs where PAS and DAP could continue to support Pakatan Harapan as a minority government.

There is good precedent for this as Anwar signed a CSA with former prime minister Ismail Sabri which kept him in power.

We already know the attorney-general has several investigation papers on the PAS leadership, and is holding these in abeyance.

PAS leader Abdul Hadi Awang could be disqualified from his Maran seat over statements about bribery and corruption prior to GE15.

Other PAS MPs could be disqualified for disobeying their oath of allegiance to parliament.

The remedy for PAS is to cooperate with the Anwar government with a CSA, should it falter over the Najib pardon issue.

The Najib pardon issue is toxic for the stability of the government and integrity of Malaysia’s legal and judicial system. It could be directly related to the survival of the Anwar administration.

(Murray Hunter has been involved in Asia-Pacific business for the last 40 years as an entrepreneur, consultant, academic and researcher. He was an associate professor at Universiti Malaysia Perlis.)