By Tay Tian Yan, Sin Chew Daily

The Palace is not going to let Muhyiddin be caretaker PM for too long.

On Tuesday, His Majesty met the leaders of various parties and by 4.00p.m. Wednesday, he will have collected all the SDs signed by the MPs.

Next, probably the Malay Rulers will meet to finalize the PM candidate.

From this moment on, the next 48 hours will be the most crucial moment that will decide who the country's ninth prime minister will be.

All sorts of negotiations, deals, or even threats, will be carried out over the next 48 hours!

There are currently two pathways towards the top post in Putrajaya.

For one, under normal circumstances, the MP that gets the support of at least 111 MPs in the parliament will be the next prime minister.

But the question is, so far no one has the magic number yet. Only two people may have, or are near to this number:

1. Ismail Sabri Yaakob

The deputy prime minister and the candidate nominated by various PN parties and Umno ministers. He will have at least 100 seats at this moment. If the 15 votes from Umno's anti-Muhyiddin faction all go to him, he will have 115 in total.

Now that Muhyiddin has stepped down, Umno' anti-Muhyiddin faction should by right be happy that an Umno MP finally gets the PM post.

The thing is, Ahmad Zahid may not think likewise. On the one hand, his gang may not accept Bersatu's participation in the new government, and on the other hand, they may not be happy with Ismail Sabri's loyalty to Muhyiddin in the past.

As such, we cannot expect that these 15 seats will definitely go to Ismail.

He may not also get the blessings of the Umno supreme council now controlled by Zahid and Najib.

That explains why Ismail has held out an olive branch to Tun Mahathir in hope of getting a lift from the ex-PM.

In the meantime, he can also seek the support of other opposition lawmakers although this is admittedly rather hard.

Ismail's ultimate chance is to try to persuade Zahid-Najib to let him be Umno's PM candidate. Sure enough he may have to concede and accept the conditions set out by them.

On the surface, his chances are still comparatively higher.

2. Anwar Ibrahim

Anwar has given its full shot to manage only 88 seats from PH plus several pro-PH parties and independents to make up roughly 92 seats.

Anwar has set his sights on ex-PKR MPs as well as Warisan and Pejuang.

He still has a chance if everything goes as he has wished.

But, those who have left PKR to join Bersatu are still very loyal to Azmin Ali and Bersatu, and from what we know, they have signed their SDs and let Muhyiddin have the final say.

Warisan, meanwhile, has its own plans. Its president Shafie Apdal could be a black horse in the making.

PKR and Warisan have struck an accord after some negotiations: If Anwar has the numbers, Warisan will support; and if Shafie manages to get the numbers, PH will have to support him as PM, too.

In other words, If Anwar manages to get 103 seats, Warisan's eight seats will go to him; and if Shafie gets 23, PH's 88 will also need to support him.

Another arrangement is for Anwar to be PM and Shafie the deputy.

Whichever arrangement, both Anwar and Shafie still need to work very hard to reach the magic number.

3. Ku Li

In Umno's internal negotiations, Ku Li has been insistent not to agree to Ismail Sabri as Umno's PM candidate. He has always thought that he is more than eligible to be an alternative candidate.

From what is understood, so far only Zahid is agreeable to him as the party's PM candidate. Zahid is well aware that he is not in a position to fight for the top government post and as party president, has lobbied to get Ku Li nominated by the party's supreme council.

But, even if Ku Li is a party veteran, he is almost too old for the PM post. He can only wait for a miracle to happen, or for the Palace to give him a lift.

4. Shafie Apdal

As said earlier, Shafie is a black horse, and under normal circumstances, his chances are slim although not entirely non-existent.

He can only count on PH's support as an alternative PM candidate in the event Anwar is eliminated. With Mahathir's blessings, his prospects could even be brighter than that of the PKR president. All he needs is to get a few more independents on his side to create that miracle.

5. Hishammuddin Hussein

Umno's leadership under Zahid is strongly resistant to Hishammuddin. While he belongs to Umno's "minister cluster", his position is inferior to that of Ismail Sabri.

He and Bersatu's Azmin Ali could be a team. Rumors have it that if he were to become PM, Azmin would be his deputy. That said, these two people would very likely be disappointed and rumors will remain just as that: rumors.

Hisham knows very well that luck may not be on his side this time, so he has kept in very low profile, and can only hope for a good post in the new government to keep the temperature.

Chances for the above five PM candidates vary, and up till this moment, no one has the numbers yet.

In the event no one gets the majority support, His Majesty may have to exercise his power to arbitrate.

A cross-party collaboration to form a unity government could become a reality under the auspices of the King. A MAGERAN (National Operations Council) style of council to be led by one of the above PM aspirants could be another option.