By Kuik Cheng Kang, Sin Chew Daily

With the rollout of the national immunization program, GE15 is just around the corner, earliest between June and August after Raya, and latest any time after this October.

Of course, the timing will also need to take into account the progress of vaccination and whether the pandemic is under control.

No doubt Malaysians have grown increasingly frustrated at politics, and have hoped the election can deliver us out of the current stalemate. We want to see the economy growing again, political situation stabilized and the country back to the track, after the virus is successfully contained.

But, is the election the cure-all solution to our woes?

Don't be surprised if the post-election situation is not what we have longed for.

All the political alliances we now have – BN, PN or PH+ – could restructure, including a swap of partners.

For Malay parties, Umno, PAS and Bersatu have their own strengths and calculations. Among them Umno appears to be the strongest while Bersatu is perceived as the weakest. PAS, meanwhile, is sitting on the fence waiting for the windfall.

The Malay electorate will still be characterized by the "Anything But Rocket" overtone In the coming election, while the Chinese will continue to lean towards DAP, having not the slightest favor for Umno, PAS or Bersatu. These are the two major extremes which prevail at this moment.

But whether you like it or not, the destiny of Chinese Malaysians will very much be tied to Umno, PAS and Bersatu as ever, given the country's Malay-dominated political reality. PKR will never be the Malay society's first choice.

These three Malay parties may get to rule, and their policies will have a deep bearing on our lives. Unless we have new parties, we've got to make our pick, anyway.

DAP was well aware that PAS' ultimate motive was to set up an Islamic state, but still opted to tie up with the Islamist party in GE13 in hope of winning the federal administration. So, it shouldn't come as anyone's surprise if it decides to work with Umno before the next election out of political need.

Political balance and combinations remain highly fluid from now until the next election, and very likely the post-election new government is formed only on the negotiation table.

The wedlock between Umno and Bersatu will not last forever. Umno refuses to live under submission of another party and has wanted to assume dominance all over again by means of an election win.

It is learned that the party's recent supreme council meeting made the following decisions:

1. Not to go along with Bersatu in GE15.

2. As PAS has seemingly leaned towards Bersatu, going into the election with or without the Islamist party no longer matters.

3. Be prepared to fight the war on its own.

4. Fight for the PM post with the largest number of seats clinched in the election; DPM post is never a consideration.

5. Reconstruct and reform Umno.

6. Stay in the PN government until the election.

7. Form alliances only at federal level as far as possible; go solo in state elections.

It is obvious now that Umno is determined to win back federal and state administrations. The thing is, Umno may not have the upper hand in three-cornered fights where it has to confront both PN and PH+, in which case PH+ will get the unexpected boost, thus the possibility of they returning to Putrajaya.

Whether Umno's plans work will very much depend on how it takes charge of the country's pre-election political climate. Right now the party is in a state of disunity. People like party president Ahmad Zahid, BossKu Najib Razak, deputy president Mohamad Hasan, Hishammuddin and VP Ismail Sabri all have their own and distinct followers, each of these factions still realigning among themselves this minute.

Some have even attempted to bring Mahathir and Muhyiddin back to the fold, making the power structure of the country's predominant Malay party anything but predictable. It is learned that talks and power struggle are still underway.

So long as Zahid and BossKu are still around, restructuring Umno will not be easy, and chances Mahathir and Muhyiddin return to Umno are slim.

Even as Umno leaders with party posts have hoped Zahid will bow out, none has the guts to act rashly or openly defy him. So long as Zahid is still the boss, he will decide who gets to run in the election. An appointment letter signed by the party president is prerequisite to electoral candidacy.

BossKu, meanwhile, still has the clout despite the many court cases haunting him. He has constantly voiced up for the people ever since he stepped down from premiership, to become the preferred mouthpiece for many a Malay voter. His grassroots influence is still substantial. He is still the one rival factions are vying to win over, and is banking on such forces to help him secure a significant comeback. And it is said he's all ready to go with Hisham.

So far no side can claim the absolute edge, and if none manages to tower over the rest come the next election, it is almost inconceivable for a divided Umno to fight the election war in unison. With only a couple of months to go, we have yet to see who will eventually accomplish the Mission Impossible of creating a miracle out of a complete rot.

To be honest, Bersatu's journey has never been a smooth one since the very start, with Umno eyeing to gobble it up anytime. Its destiny today is not unlike that of Semangat 46 of yesteryear. In the end, it may have to dissolve itself and rejoin Umno all and sundry.

But, Muhyiddin has been lucky enough to sail past all the hurdles over the past one year, and given his character, his Bersatu will stay in the ring with Umno until the very last minute.

As the sitting prime minister, Muhyiddin has immense resources at his disposal to rope in the various forces in strengthening the PN coalition to face the election. If eventually Umno decides to go its own way and run in constituencies that are traditionally MCA's and MIC's, these two minor parties may be forced to choose between PN and BN.

As for another major Malay party, PAS, its influence in the Malay society has expanded over time. Any misstep on the part of Umno will expedite the Malay society's tilt towards the Islamist party. With Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah already under PAS, they are now adopting the strategy of making advances into urban constituencies from their rural strongholds.

Unless the Muhyiddin-led PN coalition can put up a strong election line-up, or Umno manages to retain the hearts of Malay constituents, a precarious political situation with no party or alliance able to claim a convincing majority could become a reality post-election, and a coalition government will have to be set up out of talks between the biggest party and the others.

If unfortunately this is what is going to happen, the real drama is just about to unfold.

As voters, we've got to be mentally prepared for a second betrayal!