By Dr. Rais Hussin

Coronavirus is a generic name. It has been around, by some scientific estimates for close to sixty years . But the species that host it was a range of animals ranging from civet cats to monkeys and bats, if not more.

But like all vicious virus, which want to thrive in all hosts, once it has made that "jump" from animals to human, it will refuse to perish easily.

SARS was a good example. Although SARS has become extinct, after eight months of causing global public health and economic shock in 2003, COVID-19 (previously identified as by World Health Organization as N or Novel Coronavirus 2019, as it exploded in the city of Wuhan, China in December 2019) has returned as the cousin of SARS. 

Thus, in some scientific circles, COVID-19 can also be known as SARS Cov II. In fact, it is SARS Cov II that is triggering the disease known as COVID-19. 

The best analogy is HIV or Human Immunodeficiency Virus. When one is identified as HIV positive, without proper medicine or a combination of medicine, one is liable to becoming perennially sick. The latter is Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS). SARS Cov II, for the lack better word, triggers COVID-19.

Not all infections of COVID-19 are of course fatal. They range from mild, severe to critical, once again to the WHO.

As of March 4, WHO has raised the level of highest alert short of calling it a pandemic yet.

But having been transmitted to 65 countries, and growing, with every continent in the world registering either cases in their singular digits or tens of thousands, it is clearly pandemic. 

Pan, being the Greek root word, that suggests the crossing more than than two continents; a definition which WHO is not averse to.

As things are, scientists in China have discovered two strain of COVID II. One is name strain S, while the other, which is more infectious, is known as strain L. South China Morning Post reported that of the two, strain L is more infectious.

One of the reasons why the cases in Wuhan, which exploded into nearly 80,000 between January 22 and now, as this is written, has begun to stabilize is the speed and scale by which the public health authorities in China had been able to enforce an effective quarantine of not just Wuhan but 13 other cities in China.

While this has had the effect of disrupting the economic manufacturing and supply chain activities of China, which consequently, is affecting the world, since 20 per cent of the world's total production is reliant on China — as opposed to 3 per cent in 2003 — the outbreak of COVID-19 will jam up the global commerce completely.

Thus even if the cases in Wuhan have had a discerning drop, registering few hundred cases a day, rather than thousands, China and the rest of the world would be deeply upended.

One has not included the outbreak in South Korea, that has just crossed 5000 cases in a weak, and Iran and Italy, which together, has led to an increase of 3000 cases and counting.

While the average mortality of COVID-19 hovers between 2-3 per cent, it depends on one's gender, geography and immunity.

Scientists have shown that COVID-19 appears to be more lethal on male, especially male with chronic diseases such as Diabetes, Bronchitis, Asthma. 

The chances of one's survival is also contingent on which country or city is located in. In cities like Hong Kong and Singapore, which have medical services, COVID-19 has not over whelmed their private and public hospitals yet. Same goes for Malaysia. 

But if there are any attempts to suppress the information, as China had tried to do when the likes of COVID-19 had first been discovered on December 8, then the rapid transmission would demand radical measures such as a comprehensive and enforced quarantine.

In Iran, the mortality rate is 5.74 per cent, which suggests that the health authorities there have not been totally transparent with the number of cases reported. The high mortality rate, almost 2.5 times than China, Hong Kong and Singapore, implied a ticking time bomb in Iran.

As things are, the deputy minister of health has caught it; as did the Vice President of Iran and the advisor to President Khamenei. The latter has passed away too. Indeed, CNN reports that up to 8 per cent of the Members of Parliament in Iran are affected by COVID-19.

In Malaysia, patient 26 of COVID-19, has been in close contact with his staffs and various officials, leading to the infection of 19 people out of a total of 50 patients in Malaysia to date. As this is written, some 189 patients who have undergone the tests have not received their health status or clearance yet.

COVID-19 is deadly despite its low mortality rate. Why? To begin with, virus can stay on the surface of one's phone for almost a week, according to the research of a professor at University of Southampton, as reported in the Telegraph.

With fifty cases to date in various parts of the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced an emergency anti-coronavirus plan. He ought to know it's danger, as a leaked report from the British Prime Minister's office last week, affirmed that the worst case scenario is one whereby 50-70 per cent of all British citizens would be taken ill.

In the press conference to the media yesterday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson affirmed that all companies in UK have to be ready to operate with 1/5 of their work force unable to return to work.

The army and the police, has also been asked not to focus on any minor crimes. Instead all hands are on deck to face the specter of a full blown pandemic in UK.

Mordena, a US pharmaceutical firm, as well as Fujifim Toyama, which also operates in Malaysia, are doing their earnest to develop a vaccine. But the likelihood of an effective vaccine which can be deployed on all human population across the entire face of the world is likely to be one year of one year and a half away.

As COVID-19 runs rampant in various parts of Asia and Europe, Malaysia in particular has to be very careful about the protocol of containing the outbreak. Truthful information must be disclosed all days to raise the level of societal preparedness.

Patients do recover from COVID-19. But there have been cases that those who had recovered are liable to experience a relapse too. Thus the likes of Malaysia, while strong in contact tracing, must not let down their guards.

Indeed, what makes COVID-19 so deadly is its asymptomatic nature. The incubation period can be as long as 14 days to 35 days. Thus one afflicted with COVID-19 can begin spreading the virus in a rapid manner, without even knowing he or she is spreading it.

COVID-19 is extremely smart too. It first tries to break into the ribonucleic acid (RNA), a biological mechanism that is involved in transmitting key health information to one's DNA. 

The attempt to latch on to a person's RNA is most effective when the ACE II membranes and counts of the victims are weak. 

Once the virus of COVID-19 has latched on to ACE II, it then tries to trick an enzyme in the body known as Encin, to double and divide exponentially. 

Come what may, COVID-19 requires the whole of Malaysia to be on super alert, especially if we love our parents and friends who are above the age of 55, who may not be well nutritioned.

Only by rising above politics, for now, can Malaysia health authorities wrestle this beast to the floor, potentially with the help of relevant medical authorities like WHO or pharmaceutical companies such as Fujifilm Toyama.

(Datuk Wira Dr. Rais Hussin Mohamed Ariff is the President/CEO at EMIR Research, an independent think tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based on rigorous research.)